Capital Daily Inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for US & E-Z yields Despite the limited market reaction to today’s higher-than expected US CPI print, we still think that the yield of US 10-year Treasuries will rise this year as high inflation proves persistent. We... 10th June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further jump in core CPI inflation to a 28-year high of 3.8% in May, from 3.0%, was again driven by the same handful of categories most directly affect by the lifting of virus restrictions. But... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are green commercial leases the future? With emission targets needing to be met by 2030, the race is on for the real estate sector to decarbonise. By forcing tenants and landlords to share the risks, benefits and costs of environmental... 10th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell again last week, in part due to higher refinery activity. However, rising product stocks and lower product demand suggest the downward trend in crude stocks may slow... 9th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Talking about talking about tapering Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting. But with recent data leaving the economy still some way from making... 9th June 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys point to surge in wage and price inflation The surge in job openings and voluntary quits in April add to the survey and anecdotal evidence that labour shortages are becoming increasingly acute. Those shortages look set to persist for some time... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales cool and prices will soon follow Both new and existing home sales dropped back in April and the May pending home sales index points to further declines in existing sales over the next couple of months. House price growth of over 13%... 8th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of US inflation expectations and Treasuries The recent pull-back in the 10-year Treasury yield mainly seems to reflect less concern about the long-term outlook for inflation, even though Thursday’s CPI data will probably show that core... 8th June 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr) The sharp drop in the trade deficit, to $68.9bn in April from $75.0bn a month earlier, largely reflects cooling demand for consumer goods now the boost from fiscal stimulus is fading and demand is... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect US Treasury yields to continue falling We don’t expect the small fall in long-dated US Treasury yields following May’s US Employment Report to last, and continue to expect yields to resume their earlier rise before long. 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outlook for Treasuries still a threat to US equities Today’s US Employment Report has failed to awaken the Treasury market from its slumber this quarter. We think, however, that long-dated yields will rise again in due course after their surge earlier... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats’ spending plans hit by reality check The Senate Parliamentarian delivered some bad news to the Democrats this week – ruling that they could introduce another reconciliation to the current budget, which would allow them to pass more of... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 559,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May was at least an improvement on the 278,000 gain in April but, with the level of employment still 7.6 million below its pre-pandemic peak, it would take... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks declined for the fifth week in a row, owing to the robust economic recovery and a further increase in inputs to refineries. With demand set to rise further, and few signs of... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the calm in the Treasury market will last After a turbulent first quarter of 2021, the Treasury market has been remarkably calm so far in the second. This is despite growing concerns about inflation. We think, however, that long-dated yields... 3rd June 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect gradual increases in 10-year DM bond yields We think most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until at least early 2023. Even so, we expect the yields of 10-year DM... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
