US Chart Pack ‘Transitory’ inflation claims look less convincing The further jump in CPI inflation in May was again driven by a handful of categories most affected by the lifting of pandemic restrictions. But there were also clear signs that inflationary pressures... 16th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Treasury yields, inflation compensation & US equities The retreat in US Treasury yields over the past month or so seems at odds with the US economy’s fundamentals, and we doubt that it will be sustained. Our forecast that the 10-year yield will end 2021... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Higher oil production to weigh on prices in 2022 Higher production from OPEC+ member states and in the Americas means that global oil production is set to rise sharply over the next eighteen months. This is the reason why we expect oil prices to... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May.) Single-family starts edged higher in May but have been broadly flat since the start of the year. While worsening affordability is now weighing on the demand for homes, record low inventory and falling... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields and US stock market rotation We don’t expect the unwinding of the rotation trade in the US stock market over the past month or so, which has coincided with a pull-back in long-dated Treasury yields, to continue. 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.8% m/m rise in industrial production in May, driven by a 0.9% gain in manufacturing output, suggests that some of the shortages holding back production in recent months could have eased. But... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 1.3% decline in retail sales in May is arguably a lot better than it looks because there were big upward revisions to the April data and spending on food and drink services posted another solid... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily DM central banks, bond yields and the US dollar We think that the various developed market (DM) central bank meetings this week will support our view that long-dated government bond yields will generally rise further in the US than elsewhere over... 14th June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (May.) Commercial real estate debt held by banks grew again in May. But while we expect growth to accelerate as the year progresses and confidence returns, investor caution toward the office and retail... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is US households’ cult of equity a bad omen for stocks? The record allocation of US households (and non-profit organisations) to equites chimes with the broader evidence that the valuation of the US stock market is high by historical standards. With that... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Lasting price pressures building The continued surge in prices last month was again mostly concentrated in sectors reopening or facing intense supply constraints, which allows the Fed to stick with its “largely transitory” story for... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Focus Why we expect the US dollar to reverse course Having fallen back to near its post-pandemic lows, we don’t think that the decline in the US dollar will continue. In this Focus, we explain why instead we expect the dollar to strengthen against most... 11th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect higher inflation to derail US equities While we think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate, we still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Substantial upgrades to industrial and apartments this year The economic recovery continues in earnest, but this is raising questions about quite how transitory the current high rates of inflation are. We think that core inflation will stay elevated, which... 10th June 2021 · 24 mins read
US Housing Market Update What’s driving the surge in rent expectations? Consumer expectations of rental growth have surged to record highs over the past couple of months. But that appears to reflect optimism around the housing market in general, rather than the rental... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
