Commodities Update Timberrrrrrrr... Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive. 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Offices set for a prolonged performance divide The pandemic has heightened occupiers’ focus on the quality and green credentials of the space they occupy. This trend is set to impact on demand, with modern, well-configured buildings with green... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Reflationary recovery races on Inflation indicators in the flash PMIs for June reached new record highs and supplier delivery times lengthened still further. However, outside the US at least, there are few signs that goods... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think that returns from US corporate bonds will underwhelm US corporate credit spreads have reached post-Global-Financial-Crisis (GFC) lows in recent weeks. So, despite our forecast for a healthy US economy, we expect US corporate bonds to outperform... 22nd June 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation picture more nuanced than headlines suggest While rising commodity prices and supply shortages are boosting inflation everywhere for now, the outlook is mixed. The boost from energy prices will fade soon as the anniversary of last year’s slump... 21st June 2021 · 15 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q2 2021) The start to the year has been in line with our expectations, meaning that falls in absorption and rents have generally accelerated in the six major metros. Owing to their relatively low rents and... 18th June 2021 · 15 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed surprise points to further dollar strength The FOMC’s optimistic assessment of the outlook and the significant shift up in its “dot plot” projections has sent the US dollar soaring over the past couple of days. We have brought forward our own... 18th June 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed shifting back to risk management mode The upward revisions to the “dot plot” at this week’s FOMC meeting were hard to square with Fed officials’ continued belief that higher inflation will prove mostly transitory. Nevertheless, we also... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect yields to rise less in Germany than in the US The yields of 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds have moved in lockstep since the latest Fed meeting, but we doubt that this will continue. While we expect the Treasury yield to rise sharply... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The S&P 500, bond yields and the Fed Wednesday’s hawkish surprise from the Fed adds weight to our views that i) the US stock market will see only limited gains between now and the end of 2023, even as the economy generally continues to... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Pension portfolio rebalancing not key to low UST yields Although portfolio rebalancing by US pension funds may have played a role in depressing Treasury yields, it is likely to have been a small one in the grand scheme of things. After all, they own only a... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surge in home equity won’t trigger credit easing The home equity share has surged to a 31-year high, which in the past may have persuaded mortgage lenders to ease credit conditions. But Ability to Repay regulations brought in after the financial... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil demand to rise, but it won’t stop prices falling Global oil demand looks to have held up much better so far in 2021 than during 2020, despite a resurgence of COVID infections in many parts of the world. We expect strong oil demand growth to continue... 17th June 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Inflation “transitory”, but Fed now projects rate hikes The Fed continued to stick to its view that the surge in inflation "largely" reflects "transitory factors", but officials revised their inflation projections up significantly for this year and the... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Despite an uptick in domestic production, US commercial crude stocks plummeted last week as refinery throughput rose and net imports slumped. However, we suspect that the pace of draws will slow in... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Should investors be worried about higher inflation? Recent strong inflation data have heightened concerns about global price pressures. At present, we think there will be limited impact on short-term property performance. Further out though, higher... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
