US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The 0.1% m/m fall in durable goods orders in July was entirely due to a plunge in the volatile commercial aircraft component. The underlying details suggest that growth in business equipment... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update New fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming The bipartisan infrastructure deal, which could be passed by end-September, would provide no meaningful boost to the economy over the next couple of years. The $3.5trn spending package that Democrats... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) After a run of declines, new home sales eked out a small gain in July. The recent weakness in sales data likely reflects homebuilders restricting sales as they try to catch-up with the surge in demand... 24th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul) Existing home sales surprised on the upside in July, rising for the second consecutive month. But with demand easing and inventory at record lows, we doubt this is the start of a resurgence. Instead... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property valuations stabilise in Q2 Following a sharp deterioration in the previous quarter, property valuations held steady in Q2. But while changes so far in Q3 point to only a slight worsening in valuations, we expect Treasury yields... 23rd August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed still to decide on taper timeline The Fed now looks likely to begin tapering its asset purchases later this year, but the precise timing could depend on the extent of any economic drag from the continued rapid spread of the Delta... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing End of eviction ban won’t stop recovery in rents The eviction ban has been extended to early October, but we doubt it will be renewed again. Given the strength of the labour market, significant government support and robust rental demand, the... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report While crude stocks fell again last week, gasoline inventories rose a little and there was a further pullback in implied gasoline demand. Given the ongoing rise in virus infections and some re... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative valuations of US housing and equities Despite growing talk of another bubble in the US housing market, its valuation remains far less stretched than that of the US stock market and is not alarming in our view given the prospects for... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Office metro-level divergence to persist After a period of strong economic growth in H1 2021, with high inflation squeezing incomes and the spread of the Delta variant, the outlook for H2 is less positive. That said, we don’t expect this to... 18th August 2021 · 12 mins read
US Chart Pack Growth slowing even before potential Delta drag The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales last month illustrates the worsening drag from the sharp slowdown in real income growth, as earlier fiscal support fades and surging prices erode purchasing power... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Single-family starts edged back in July, although they but remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels. Shortages in lots, labour and materials are weighing on builder confidence and housing starts... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in July suggests that the hit to real incomes from surging prices, along with growing concerns about the Delta coronavirus variant, is starting to take its toll. The... 17th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jul.) Outstanding real estate debt growth accelerated in July, supported by increases in residential, multifamily and non-farm commercial real estate debt. And with demand for loans growing on the back of... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Inflation peaking; growing chance of earlier taper While the July inflation data this week added to signs that we’re past the peak of “transitory” gains in prices for used autos and reopening services, the pick-up in some of the more cyclically driven... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
