Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s sharp fall in US commercial crude stocks is at odds with many of the underlying indicators. In any case, stocks seem likely to rise in the weeks ahead as reports suggest that refinery... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The details of the small rise in the headline ISM manufacturing index in August to 59.9, from 59.5, suggest demand remains strong and that, while some of the recent price pressures have faded, supply... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) With the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy at a record low, home purchase mortgage applications fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down 25% from January’s... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation & the outlook for E-Z & US Yields While we think that 10-year government bond yields in both the US and the euro-zone will rise over the next few years, we expect increases in yields to be much smaller in the euro-zone given the... 31st August 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun) House price growth surged above 18% y/y in June, setting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. However, demand has fallen back since the start of the year, and the timelier Common... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update What the S&P 500’s valuation may mean for future returns Although the US stock market’s valuation is nearly as high now as it was at the height of dot com mania, we don’t expect the return from it to be as bad in the next decade as it was in the 2000s. 31st August 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally reverses on dovish Powell; payrolls coming up The US dollar gave back much of its gains from last week, as appetite for risk recovered and Chair Powell’s much-anticipated speech today provided some relatively dovish guidance on the path for Fed... 27th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Dollar depreciation unlikely to last There was a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of commodities prices this week, with across-the-board gains as risk appetite picked up and the US dollar eased back. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, was... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta spreads; consumption slows; Powell stalls The Delta-variant linked surge in coronavirus cases continues and has now spread well beyond just one or two southern states. Moreover, even in those southern states, particularly Florida, new case... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update New supply won’t have major impact on industrial rental growth Despite a higher construction pipeline for distribution warehouses, we think that a high share of pre-let space, coupled with strong demand, means vacancy will only be 20bps higher over the next few... 27th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Our views on the US dollar’s long-term prospects Although we forecast the greenback will rise further over the next year or two, we think that it will face growing headwinds over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we have made this FX... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update How vulnerable are house prices to a rise in rates? Our forecast for mortgage rates to rise to 4.2% by end-2023 will help slow house price gains, but we don’t think that increase will be enough to cause an outright fall in values. And with homes not... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What the S&P 500’s valuation may mean for future returns Although the US stock market’s valuation is nearly as high now as it was at the height of dot com mania, we don’t expect the return from it to be as bad in the next decade as it was in the 2000s. 26th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Continued strong payroll gains in August We expect a 750,000 gain in payrolls in August which, although slightly weaker than the gains seen in June and July, would be enough to push the unemployment rate down to 5.1% and would probably count... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Uncertainties surround QE taper timing and pace With the Delta-linked resurgence in coronavirus infections adding to the downside risks to economic growth and officials still split on exactly what qualifies as “substantial further progress” toward... 26th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks fell again last week and implied gasoline demand rose, in broadly positive news for oil prices. For now, US consumers appear to be shrugging off the spread of the Delta variant of... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
