Global Markets Update Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years. 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Three reasons why Chicago will emerge a winner Chicago’s office market will not escape the gloomy outlook caused by the shift to remote working. But we expect the low level of rents, the small share of jobs in the information sector, and a... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Three key developments to keep an eye on Most commodity prices ground higher this week. And, stepping back, we think events this week highlight three key themes to watch in the months ahead. First, natural gas prices show no sign of easing... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta impact evident in both CPI and retail sales While the data released this week showed retail spending picking up in August as price gains moderated, the figures are still consistent with a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Rising cyclical pressure will keep inflation elevated The spread of the Delta variant domestically has triggered a temporary reversal in the reopening inflation in high contact services, but its spread across other parts of the world will intensify... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Even though the 0.7% rise in headline retail sales in August was much better than expected, the details were far less positive, with big downward revisions to previous months, while the rise in online... 16th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the global property upturn? The most recent commercial property data have been surprisingly upbeat and have raised the possibility that the recovery could be stronger than expected. But we think investors may have run ahead of... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There were hefty falls in both crude and petroleum product stocks, reflecting closed production capacity due to damage caused by Hurricane Ida. Implied gasoline demand also dropped back but it is... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed still preparing ground for QE taper We think the sharp slowdown in employment growth in August and broader signs of weakness in the incoming activity data mean the Fed will hold off formally announcing a QE taper at its September... 15th September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m rise in industrial production in August lifted it back above its pre-pandemic peak, but was nevertheless weaker than we had expected and suggests that the industrial recovery is losing... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update New apartments will start to get larger soon Apartments kept getting smaller in the second quarter of this year, with the median floor space of units falling to under 1,000 sq. ft., the lowest since records began in 1999. That trend seems at... 14th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The more modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in August will be heralded as a sign that the recent surge in inflation was transitory after all but, although the spread of the Delta variant... 14th September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Delta not the main factor weighing on growth With authorities having shown no appetite to reimpose restrictions on activity and new virus cases now levelling off, the Delta variant is still unlikely to have as big an impact on the economy as... 13th September 2021 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) The rise in OPEC’s oil output fell well short of its target in August. And given a higher oil demand forecast for 2022, alongside growing external pressure, we think that the risks are tilting towards... 13th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Aug.) All real estate sectors saw growth in outstanding debt for the second consecutive month in August. What’s more, the third consecutive monthly increase in commercial real estate debt of more than $10bn... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
