US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul.) Annual house price growth set another record in July as low mortgage rates, past stimulus payments and a tight market drove values higher. But there are tentative signs that the market is beginning to... 28th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Will US-China decoupling be inflationary? China’s integration into the global economy contributed to the low inflation environment of recent decades. But it was not the major driver and, in any case, China’s integration peaked several years... 28th September 2021 · 24 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q3 2021) With absorption of landlord-held office stock set to remain negative for the foreseeable future, we continue to expect vacancy rates to climb and rents to fall in all six major office markets over the... 27th September 2021 · 16 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 1.8% m/m rise in durable goods orders in August was due to the ongoing rebound in commercial aircraft orders together with solid growth in underlying capital goods orders, with the latter... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling crisis can still be avoided We still expect Congress to avoid a partial government shutdown at the start of next month and to raise the debt ceiling before a full-blown crisis develops in late October. But the negotiations over... 27th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) An improvement in inventory helped new home sales rise for the second consecutive month in August. Admittedly, overall housing demand has eased in recent months and a rise in mortgage rates argues... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling could still delay QE taper This week the focus was on the Fed, which appears intent on announcing a QE taper at the next FOMC meeting in early November. Next week the focus will shift to fiscal policy, with the Democrat’s plans... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight Will higher inflation force central banks to raise rates? We think a sustained period of inflation in the region of 3-4% over the coming years could be dealt with relatively easily by central banks. But if inflation were to rise much further than this... 23rd September 2021 · 33 mins read
US Economics Update Taper to begin in November Fed officials gave a heavy hint today that the QE taper will be formally announced in November and, presumably in response to concerns that the surge in inflation won't be as transitory as they... 22nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks have continued to fall as refinery activity has so far recovered faster than crude output following Hurricane Ida. And with demand already broadly back to pre-pandemic levels, US crude... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Existing home sales dropped back in August as booming house prices and a lack of affordable inventory shut out first-time buyers. A small recovery in home purchase mortgage demand suggests sales may... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) A boom in multifamily construction has supported housing starts in recent months, with multifamily building permits rising to a 31-year high. On the single-family side, homebuilders have reported... 21st September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Are the structural headwinds to inflation fading? The past few decades have been marked by a combination of sustained disinflationary forces, but the picture in more recent years, and particularly since the pandemic, looks more mixed. Globalisation... 20th September 2021 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stimulus cheques help explain house price rebound After beginning to slow at the turn of the year, house price growth has since got a second wind. We suspect the key driver behind that resurgence was the arrival of the third round of stimulus cheques... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
