US Economics Weekly The Great Resignation and Striketober Employees are flexing their new-found bargaining power, with the unprecedented rate of job turnover, labelled “The “Great Resignation”, triggering a surge in wage growth for job switchers. Wage growth... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The 7.0% m/m rise in existing home sales in September does not mark the start of an upward trend in activity. With mortgage rates rising, inventory close to record lows and home buying sentiment at 39... 21st October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Uncertainty over Fed’s reaction function We are confident in our new forecasts that GDP growth will be a disappointing 2.7% in 2022 and 2.0% in 2023, while core inflation remains elevated at close to 3%, but we are less confident in our... 21st October 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s economic slowdown and US Treasury yields Although slowing growth in China has probably weighed on US Treasury yields in the past, we don’t expect it to prevent them from rising over the next couple of years. 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Strong exports contributed to the first drawdown in stocks in four weeks last week, supporting already-high crude prices. What’s more, stocks at the hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, also fell and they are... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) Single-family starts and building permits have been stable over the past three months at around 1.1m annualised, as strong new home demand has run up against shortages of materials and labour. We... 19th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Downtown offices not losing out everywhere National office data suggest that suburban office markets have significantly outperformed downtown offices since the onset of the pandemic. But metro-level data point to a more nuanced picture in... 18th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 1.3% fall in industrial production in September partly reflects a temporary hit to mining and chemicals output from Hurricane Ida and a drop in cooling demand, as the weather returned to seasonal... 18th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Whiff of stagflation gets stronger The whiff of stagflation is getting stronger as shortages worsen, leading to surging prices and weaker real GDP growth. Shortages of goods and intermediate inputs will eventually ease, although not... 18th October 2021 · 23 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Sep.) Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fourth consecutive month in September, thanks to net lending turning a corner in the residential sector and accelerating in the commercial sector. 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rising mortgage rates will help cool booming prices Mortgage rates are on the rise and we expect they will see further gains to end the year at around 3.5%. That, alongside relatively tight credit conditions, will help cool rampant house price... 15th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy price rally may spill over to other commodities Most commodity prices increased this week. Optimism over electrification, which was a hot topic during LME Week, seemed to feed through into higher industrial metals prices. But the prices of energy... 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour force exodus shows no sign of reversing This week brought more news that acute labour shortages and the resulting surge in wages are rapidly feeding through into the most cyclically sensitive components of the consumer price index. 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 0.7% m/m rise in retail sales in September suggests goods spending held up a little better than we had anticipated, but real consumption growth still slowed sharply in the third quarter. 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We don’t expect tapering to be a key driver of the US dollar We doubt that the direct effects of the tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases will have much of an impact on the US dollar, and think that other factors will be more important in pushing the greenback... 15th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A large fall in the refinery utilisation rate drove another increase in stocks last week, although utilisation rates are normal for the time of the year. And with output set to remain constrained... 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
