US Economics Weekly Fed risking falling further behind the curve While the Fed announced tapering as expected at its meeting this week, the big surprise was how dovish the language in the statement and press conference remained, which suggests to us an increasing... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The stronger 531,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October suggests the economy is rebounding rapidly from the initial Delta wave but, despite easing virus concerns, there was absolutely no sign of a... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update REITs hint at upside risk for industrial and apartments REIT pricing appears consistent with our view that retail values are nearing a turning point while office values have a bit further to fall. But a strong recovery in industrial and apartment REITs... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Booming home sales fail to raise homeownership rate Despite the exodus from cities and booming home sales last year, the homeownership rate in the third quarter was virtually unchanged from its level prior to the arrival of COVID-19. And with soaring... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep) The sharp widening in the trade deficit to $80.9bn in September, from $72.8bn, should soon start to reverse as oil exports recover from the disruption caused by Hurricane Ida. But ongoing global... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Shortages holding back investment and productivity While attention has been focused on how shortages and surging prices are holding back real consumption, those same factors are weighing even more heavily on business equipment investment. Faced with... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Reading the runes of relative valuation within the US stock market One reason to think that the performance of the US stock market will underwhelm, at least in the long run, is that some of the gaps between the valuations of its most highly and lowly valued companies... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed launches taper, still thinks inflation is transitory The Fed unveiled its QE taper today, as widely expected, but is still insisting that the surge in inflation is "largely" transitory, which suggests the doves have the upper hand. 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Metals Outlook Metals can’t escape China slowdown Industrial metals prices have risen recently on the back of supply concerns related to higher energy costs and power rationing in China. Both factors will continue to support prices in the near term... 3rd November 2021 · 20 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) While the 3m/3m growth rate was positive in all metros in September, employment fell in Baltimore, Detroit, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh on the month. That left employment in just Austin, Phoenix and... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) Mortgage rates rose to an eight-month high in October, which drove a significant decline in refinancing activity. But home purchase demand saw a much smaller dip, and we expect it will trend down only... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Making sense of the latest strong data on US real estate Recent data releases and surveys show a booming commercial real estate market, particularly in the industrial and apartment sectors. While the level of prices is raising some eyebrows, we don’t see... 2nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Outlook Prices to come off the boil in 2022 Following sizzling rallies in the prices of energy commodities in 2021, we expect prices to ease back in 2022 on the back of lower growth in demand and improved supply. Current high prices will... 1st November 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update We don’t expect dollar/oil correlation to stay positive for long Despite their recent positive correlation, we think that oil and the dollar will go in opposite directions before long: we continue to think that oil prices will fall back as the supply situation... 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) While the headline ISM manufacturing index fell only slightly to 60.8 in October, from 61.1, the survey details add to the evidence that shortages are constraining activity and pushing up prices. 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Different party, same infrastructure week debacle The weakness of third-quarter GDP growth illustrates that, while demand remains strong, the economy has hit a wall of supply constraints. Ongoing product and labour shortages mean that growth will... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
