US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices rose by 0.8% m/m in November, taking the annual CPI inflation rate up to a near 40-year high of 6.8% but, with energy prices falling sharply in recent weeks, last month probably marked... 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is US households’ voracious appetite for equities sated? US households and nonprofit organizations (NPO) lost their appetite for equities last quarter. If they don’t get it back, it may not augur well for the stock market. 10th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The Fed and the Treasury yield curve We now expect the Treasury yield curve to flatten further over the next couple of years but think that, in contrast with recent developments, this will happen alongside rising long-term yields. 9th December 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will major coastal city rents continue to get cheaper? The pandemic turbo-charged a move away from major coastal cities, and that drop in demand led to a sharp fall in their rents relative to the national average. But with those moves now made and cities... 9th December 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market slack falling to generational lows The rebound in the job openings rate close to a record high in October means that the number of unemployed Americans per job opening fell to its lowest level since the early 1950s. That underlines the... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks remained range-bound, but there were sizeable additions to stocks of petroleum products. That said, implied product demand remains solid, despite rising new COVID-19 infections... 8th December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed pivot will take rates to more than 1.5% in 2023 In sharp contrast to the surprisingly dovish November meeting, we expect Fed officials will use their December meeting to lay the ground for markedly tighter policy in the years ahead. The... 8th December 2021 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing activity surges even as mortgage rates rise Housing market activity has surprised on the upside over the past month and home sales look set for a strong end to the year. Even as mortgage rates increased to an eight-month high, home purchase... 7th December 2021 · 9 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The 8.1% m/m surge in exports in October means that net trade is on course to add about 1% point to fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we think will be 6.5% annualised, and provides more evidence that... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack The net effect of Omicron on commodities is not clear Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has... 7th December 2021 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX markets likely to remain volatile into year-end After rallying to its highest level of the year last week, the US dollar seems set to end this week broadly unchanged. In our view, this reflects the offsetting effects of rising short-term yields in... 3rd December 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell signals turning point in policy Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony this week was markedly more hawkish. We wouldn’t characterise it as a full-blown Volcker moment. But there could be parallels with former Chair Alan... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The disappointing 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November suggests the labour market recovery was faltering even before the potential impact of the new Omicron variant, possibly due to the... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Oct.) The easing of the Delta wave of infections in the South boosted leisure & hospitality hiring in October. Meanwhile, office-based jobs rose in all 30 metros, following widespread declines in September... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks fell as, despite some chunky falls in product demand, US demand is still outstripping supply. Although, the release did shows signs that crude production might finally be... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Fair value analysis points to one more year of yield falls Against both our proprietary in-house valuations and a more traditional fair value analysis, real estate looks cheap despite recent yield falls. Indeed, our analysis suggests yields could fall by... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
