US Economics Update Omicron absenteeism a temporary economic threat The Omicron variant is less lethal than previous strains but, even if it doesn’t require the reintroduction of restrictions to mitigate the spread, the huge volume of new cases could still deal a... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell, but this reflected solid demand from refineries. Implied product demand – particularly for gasoline – slumped, suggesting that the public were cautious about travel... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Lessons from 2021 2021 proved a challenging year to forecast commercial property markets. Indeed, we underestimated the speed and size of the bounce back in performance, albeit by less than the consensus. But there are... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update 2022: High inflation to drive US policy tightening We expect inflation to remain stubbornly high in 2022, forcing the Fed to tighten monetary policy aggressively even though real economic growth underwhelms. The chances of additional fiscal stimulus... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) After a brief dip due to concerns over the Omicron variant, both the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate have since resumed their upward trends, with the latter rising to a nine-month... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the pace of industrial activity growth remained reasonably solid at the end of last year, but the survey came too early to capture the potentially significant... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth slowing ahead of Omicron hit The chaos caused by the rapid spread of the Omicron variant came too late to have much effect on December payrolls, which we estimate increased by a healthy 350,000. But the huge numbers of people... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q4 2021) Our stronger national office forecast this quarter mean upgrades to all six major markets. The largest of those uplifts is in Boston, which has seen a sharp rise up the rankings and where we expect... 23rd December 2021 · 15 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) The healthy rise in new home sales in November primarily reflected a downward revision to the previous month’s reading. Nevertheless, new sales activity is still elevated compared to its pre-COVID-19... 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) The November durable goods and income & spending data are consistent with our estimate that fourth-quarter GDP growth was 6.5% annualised, but point to a slowdown in early 2022. 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell sharply last week for the fourth week in a row. That was despite demand for oil products dropping back in line with the seasonal average. Early indicators suggest... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales continued to climb higher in November, leaving sales just short of their peak last year. But we expect a tight inventory and stretched affordability as mortgage rates rise to weigh... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We doubt that 2022-23 will be as rewarding as 2021 2021 is on course to be a relatively good year for most investors. Admittedly, it has not been entirely without its casualties. Equities in China and much of Latin America, for example, have struggled... 21st December 2021 · 11 mins read
US Chart Pack Winter virus wave to slow economic momentum The Omicron variant has supercharged the seasonal wave of virus cases sweeping parts of the US, adding to the existing headwinds to consumption growth over the coming months. In contrast to... 21st December 2021 · 9 mins read
Commodities Watch Commodity supply shortages set to ease in 2022 In this Commodities Watch, we take a closer look at commodity markets where supply shortages during the pandemic have been most severe and, consequently, where price increases have been most extreme... 21st December 2021 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past... 21st December 2021 · 8 mins read
