US Commercial Property Focus Time to go shopping for retail assets Retail real estate has faced a tough period, buffeted by the rise of e-commerce, extensive oversupply and the impacts of the pandemic on in-store shopping. But we think the sector is well down the... 20th August 2024 · 21 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The weaker July employment report and another set of mild inflation data mean the Fed remains on track to cut interest rates in September. With the activity data still supportive of our view that the... 19th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Harris unveils populist economic plan Kamala Harris unveiled her economic plan today and it appears to be focused on mostly small-scale pocket-book populist issues. Our main take-away is that, like her opponent Donald Trump, she has shied... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think a US “soft landing” will let equities take off The relief felt in markets over the past week or so as worries about the US economy have dissipated makes sense to us. So we expect the rebound in equity markets to continue. 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug. 2024) The small rebound in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in August was entirely driven by recent political developments, and still leaves it below its level for most of this year. At... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly More good data all around The data released this week was all consistent with a soft landing: Price pressures remained muted last month, while the strength of retail sales and the drop back in initial jobless claims suggested... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Jul. 2024) The slump in both housing starts and building permits in July, to the lowest levels since the epoch of the pandemic, only partly reflects the temporary impact of Hurricane Beryl. Accordingly, even... 16th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024) Minimal movement in property yields and a slight edge up in the 10-year Treasury yield meant improvement in our property valuation scores stalled in the second quarter of the year. Despite the recent... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The fall in manufacturing output in July was entirely driven by temporary disruptions which should reverse this month. Excluding those temporary factors, this is a strong report which, together with... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul. 2024) There was almost nothing in the July retail sales report for the perma-bears to latch on to, with the rebound in retail sales led by a recovery in vehicle sales, but encouragingly broad-based with... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Has inflation optimism gone too far? The muted reaction to today’s US CPI data reflects that most investors already expected inflation to fall to around 2% before long and remain there. But last week’s turmoil highlighted that when... 14th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall... 14th August 2024 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The 0.15% m/m increase in all-items CPI and the 0.17% increase in core CPI in July suggest that, after the temporary relapse in the first quarter, the disinflationary trend has firmly reasserted... 14th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 24) While investment has tentatively turned a corner, subdued activity and further rises in cap rates mean 2024 will still be a tough year. All-property values are down by 18% from their mid-2022 peaks... 14th August 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are US equities to a recession? The further rally in stock markets today leaves both valuations and earnings looking consistent with a “soft landing” in the US. So it would not take much for equities to struggle if the economy were... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
