US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Despite a 6% m/m fall in existing home sales in December, 2021 marked an impressive year for existing home sales, with sales 11% higher compared to 2020. But looking ahead, a backdrop of rising... 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to remain elevated as GDP growth slows We expect underlying inflation to remain well above the 2% target this year, which means the Fed will push ahead with four rate hikes even though real GDP growth is likely to disappoint. Core... 20th January 2022 · 22 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Surging incentives reveal weakness in the office market Office incentives packages rose to unprecedented levels in 2021, which supports our view that market conditions are weaker than asking rents suggest. Given our expectation that vacancy will remain... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key US Housing Market Calls for 2022 A rise in mortgage rates to 4.0% by end-2022, coupled with the 25% rise in house prices seen since mid-2020, will boost mortgage payments as a share of earnings to their highest since mid-2008. That... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Single-family starts edged back in December, but they saw a 12.1% y/y rise in 2021 overall as strong housing demand and a lack of existing homes for sale supported new home sales. Rising mortgage... 19th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Will Fed signal that March rate hike is coming? With many Fed officials now either explicitly supporting, or at least “open to”, an interest rate hike in March, we would expect to see some acknowledgement of that in the statement issued after the... 19th January 2022 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec.) Commercial real estate debt ended 2021 with its largest monthly increase since the onset of the pandemic. Against a backdrop of strong investment activity, we expect commercial property lending to... 17th January 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We do not expect the recent dollar weakness to last Despite several events in the US this week which would usually point to a stronger dollar – the highest US inflation print since the early 1980s, hawkish comments from both Chair Powell and Vice Chair... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed becoming more hawkish by the day The continued surge in Omicron infections suggests that the disappointing December activity data will be followed by further weakness in January, but there are no signs that it will delay the Fed’s... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output is probably a sign that Omicron-related employee absenteeism was already weighing on output by the end of last year. We expect an even bigger hit in... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.9% plunge in retail sales in December in part reflects what appears to be a problem with seasonal adjustment process around the holidays. The initial Omicron wave appears to have had only a... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Estimating the carbon transition risk to property values Real estate potentially has a significant role to play in helping achieve ambitious climate targets. We have estimated the size of the risks in the transition to net zero for the commercial property... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks slumped last week, reflecting a partial recovery in demand. However, we think demand will remain under pressure as COVID-19 cases rise in the US and as economic growth slows. 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Sustained tightening by the Fed to drive Treasury yields higher Despite its slight drop over the past few days, we still expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise further by the end of 2022. 12th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our forecasts for DM 10-year bond yields We continue to expect monetary tightening to push up 10-year government bond yields across developed markets (DMs) but we now forecast them to reach a higher level than we had previously anticipated... 12th January 2022 · 5 mins read
