US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) After two strong months new home sales edged back in January and may dip further early in the year as the surge in borrowers who sought to buy prior to further interest rate rises washes through. But... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview A strong month for payrolls as Omicron fades Reflecting the stronger trend in employment growth apparent in the revised payroll data and the collapse in Omicron cases in February, we expect non-farm payrolls to rise by 600,000 this month. 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update State & local spending won’t replace federal stimulus The strong finances of state & local governments suggest that they will continue to increase spending at a rapid pace this year. But that won’t come close to matching the huge economic boost from the... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Could the US stock market rely on a “Powell Put”? While the mood seems to have improved a little at the time of writing, the S&P 500 closed yesterday more than 10% lower than its recent peak at the start of the year, satisfying the criteria for a... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US yield curve is casting doubt on our equity vs. bond call Our view that the US stock market will outperform Treasuries again this year is being called into question by a flattening of the yield curve. Nonetheless, we are not anticipating that it will invert... 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec.) Annual house price growth held steady in December, with prices up 18.8% over 2021. But with mortgage rates now at their highest since July 2019, affordability constraints will soon cut the amount... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar see-saws on Ukraine risk & FOMC minutes Although it has rebounded today, the US dollar lost a little ground against most major currencies over the week as a whole, as the FOMC minutes prompted a scaling back of market expectations for Fed... 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) Existing home sales jumped 6.7% m/m in January, but that gain is likely to prove short-lived. Strong activity over the turn of the year is due to households rushing to buy to lock in a low mortgage... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Record investment highlights market momentum While economic indicators point to slower growth this year, investors have so far been unperturbed, piling into the market in Q4 and driving record quarterly and annual investment totals. That was led... 18th February 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy unscathed by Omicron In a week when we learned that producer price inflation, retail sales and industrial production all came in hotter than expected in January, interest rate expectations nevertheless declined, as... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Recovering capex to put a floor under US oil output After it was slashed in the wake of the pandemic, capital expenditure by US oil producers is now rising. Given oil prices will probably remain high for a while, we suspect the recovery has longer to... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Shift to South helps homes get bigger Working from home has increased the demand for larger properties, and in response the median size of new homes started at the end of last year was the largest since the start of 2019. Supporting that... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Single-family starts fell for the second month in a row in January, but a rise in building permits to a one-year high means they will soon resume their upward trend. New home sales will be supported... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial stocks in the US rose last week as refinery inputs fell and net imports increased. However, stocks in the WTI storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, dwindled further, causing WTI prices to rise... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 1.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in January appears to confirm that the Omicron wave has had surprisingly little impact on the economy. That said, the weakening global backdrop suggests... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
