US Housing Market Focus Will rental growth continue to boom? Rental growth hit record highs last year as a wave of pent-up demand, plenty of savings, the need for more space and lack of homes for sale all drove rental household formation higher. But some of... 4th March 2022 · 16 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Introducing our new metro employment forecasts Our new metro employment forecasts point to underperformance by the six major metros in the next five years, both in terms of total and office-type employment. In contrast, Austin, Dallas and Phoenix... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities War-induced rally in DM bonds may not be sustained While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial oil stocks fell last week on the back of higher exports, lower imports and greater refinery use of crude oil. Strategic reserves also fell to their lowest since August 2002 and will... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Powell keeps the Fed’s options open Chair (pro tempore) Jerome Powell indicated in his congressional testimony today that, with Russia's attacks on Ukraine roiling markets and creating additional uncertainty, he was inclined to support... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) Mortgage rates rose further in February, reaching their highest since May 2019. That weighed on mortgage demand, with applications for home purchase falling to their lowest level since the spring of... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 58.6 in February, from 57.6, is another sign that demand remains strong, with the small rise in supplier delivery times and modest decline in the prices paid... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update US economy insulated from Ukraine war The war in Ukraine will prevent US inflation from falling as much as it otherwise would have in the coming months, but it will have little impact on the real economy, so we doubt it will stop the Fed. 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Are housing valuations reaching dangerous highs? House price-to-earnings ratios are approaching the peak hit just before the global financial crisis, and another year of strong house price growth would send them above that level. But while mortgage... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Worst may be over for goods shortages Goods supply shortages are now easing. Like the recent stabilisation in labour market slack, that improvement has, at least partly, been driven by a slowdown in demand, so it isn’t a sign that... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising alternative asset yields stretch property valuations There was little change to property valuations in Q4, with two major exceptions. Those were the industrial sector, which saw another decline in its valuation score, and a handful of Southern apartment... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Waller ramps up the hawkishness In his speech late last night, Christopher Waller became the first Fed Governor to throw his weight behind St Louis Fed President James Bullard’s call for 100bp of rate hikes by the middle of the year... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Jan.) The real economy appears to be in good health, suggesting that the Fed will push on with planned rate hikes starting in March, although the Ukraine conflict makes a 50bp hike less likely. 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Signs of life in NYC; Greater LA industrial set to boom This is our first US Commercial Property Metros Chart Book, which forms part of a set of publications that extends our existing analysis to a wider set of metros. As well as greater coverage of office... 24th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose by more than the consensus expected last week, but this was never going to halt the ongoing surge in oil prices. With all eyes now on the potential fallout from a Russian invasion... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) After two strong months new home sales edged back in January and may dip further early in the year as the surge in borrowers who sought to buy prior to further interest rate rises washes through. But... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
