US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The muted 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales in February was largely offset by the upward revision to January’s gain which, overall, suggests that real consumption growth remains solid. With the sharp drop... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession risks still contained The earlier spike in crude oil prices, slump in stock markets and the flattening of the Treasury yield curve have prompted fears that US economy is headed for a 1970s-style stagflation, but our... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Industrial returns to hit 20% in 2022 before plummeting We expect the robust investment activity seen last year, particularly in H2, to persist into 2022. Although this has competed yields to record lows in the industrial and apartment sectors, we still... 15th March 2022 · 22 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Feb.) The rate of commercial lending growth dipped a little in February but remained above its five-year average. That dip was due only to a slower month for multifamily, with net lending secured against... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to kick off tightening cycle We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and, despite the war in Ukraine, to unveil new projections showing at least five interest rate hikes this year in total. 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rise in mortgage rates cools housing market activity A rise in mortgage rates to their highest since May 2019 has cooled housing market activity, with mortgage applications for home purchase dropping to a 31-month low in the last week of February... 11th March 2022 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Rising energy prices pushed the CPI inflation rate up to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and, given the spike in crude oil and gasoline prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it will climb well... 10th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Tentative easing in labour shortages Both job openings and quits have fallen back slightly over the past several months, which suggests that wage growth and underlying inflationary pressures should soon stabilise. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks in the US continued to fall last week and are now at a multi-year low for this time of year. The sharp drop in product stocks points to panic buying by consumers, while domestic crude... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update War, sanctions, and the resilience of the S&P 500 The US stock market has so far held up fairly well despite the Russia-Ukraine war. We think it will probably manage to make small gains over the rest of the year, although there are clear downside... 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to proceed cautiously despite war in Ukraine We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and, despite the war in Ukraine, to unveil new projections showing five interest rate hikes for this year in total. We also... 9th March 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Higher oil prices not a huge risk to consumers The surge in gasoline prices in recent days will only add to the drag on households purchasing power from fading stimulus and higher inflation over recent months. But with consumers able to cushion... 8th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the recent outperformance of US equities The war in Ukraine has challenged our view that US equities will underperform those in other developed markets over the next few years. We are not yet ready to abandon this view while the outlook is... 8th March 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The increase in the trade deficit to a record $89.7bn in January, from $82.0bn, means that net trade is on track to subtract close to 2%-pts from annualised first-quarter GDP growth, which we expect... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Surging energy prices will add to inflation Surging energy prices will push inflation even higher in the next month or two but, unlike in Europe, the fallout on the real economy should be relatively modest, allowing the Fed to push ahead with... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The stronger than expected 678,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February and upward revisions to previous months gains is another sign that the real economy has considerable momentum, with the Omicron... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
