US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) Although the nominal trade deficit was unchanged at $89.2bn in February specifically, the recent weakness of real exports suggests that net trade was a substantial drag on first-quarter GDP growth. 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Long rates rising but still low, particularly in real terms The inversion of the 10y-2y Treasury yield spread this week led to predictable speculation that the Fed’s interest rate hikes would quickly push the US economy into recession. 1st April 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The unexpected decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.1 in March, from 58.6, still leaves it at a healthy level and, with other US manufacturing surveys strengthening last month. Nevertheless... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 431,000 rise in non-farm payrolls is another sign that the real economy has plenty of momentum, though with those gains now being helped by a stronger rebound in the labour force, there are signs... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office Metro Outlook (Q1 2022) We expect the best performing office markets over the next five years to be in Southern and Western metros, meaning that almost all the new additions to our forecast this quarter will outperform the... 31st March 2022 · 14 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks fell again last week, as healthy profit margins appear to be driving an upturn in refinery activity. That said, high product prices are also taking their toll on consumer demand, which... 30th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan.) The rebound in house price inflation seen at the end of last year continued into 2022, with annual growth on the Case-Shiller measure moving back above 19%. But housing market activity has slowed... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate earnings may be resilient to Ukraine war While we think that the war in Ukraine and Fed tightening will weigh on US corporate earnings, we still expect those earnings to grow in the next two years or so. This underpins our view that US... 28th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update High inflation no guarantee of US REIT outperformance We think that the poor performance of US REITs in 2022 so far – despite rising concerns about inflation – adds to the evidence that REITs are not necessarily a better inflation hedge than ordinary... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook becomes more nuanced Less than a week after the Fed raised interest rates by 25bp at its policy meeting and issued projections showing that it intended to hike rates at each of the remaining six meetings this year, Chair... 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A closer look at Treasuries vs. US equities in the 70s & 80s We doubt Treasuries would underperform US equities as emphatically as they have in recent weeks if oil prices and inflation surged a lot more. Indeed, they could conceivably outperform – as they did... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth set for gradual slowdown We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 450,000 in March, marking the beginning of a gradual slowdown. The report should also provide further evidence that wage pressures are starting to ease. 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The February durable goods orders data were weaker than we had expected, even controlling for the slump in commercial aircraft orders, but the details are still consistent with first-quarter business... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Petrodollars probably won’t save Treasuries this time The reinvestment of oil revenues into US markets probably helped avert a rout in Treasuries during the mid-2000s hiking cycle, but even with oil prices on the rise again we don’t expect so-called... 24th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude oil stocks fell last week, driven by a decrease in net imports and greater refinery inputs. Demand also inched higher, but we suspect high prices will limit further gains... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) New home sales fell for the second month in a row in February, as builders limited them to catch-up with the backlog of homes under construction. Higher mortgage rates will act to cool overall housing... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
