US Economics Weekly Peak inflation won’t stop the Fed hiking aggressively The news that core prices rose by a more modest 0.3% in March, even as higher energy prices drove headline inflation to a 40-year high of 8.5%, explains why investors pared bets this week on how far... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales in March was flattered by a price-related surge in the nominal value of gasoline sales, with the details suggesting that consumption fell in real terms. 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub price set to ease Strong demand for LNG exports should lead to a higher average price of US natural gas this year. But we expect prices to ease back in the coming months as demand falls over the summer and output stays... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Winning and losing office metros from hybrid work Structural changes to working patterns and the resultant shifts in office demand will vary by industry and job type. Occupations like life and physical sciences are likely to see a low adoption of... 13th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks in commercial storage shot up last week, as the US government made more sales from its strategic reserve and refineries curbed output in the wake of weaker demand. With both factors set... 13th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Desperate buyers give home sales and prices a boost The surge in mortgage rates means home buyers with a mortgage preapproval from late January will see a rise in mortgage payments of 15% if they can’t find a home before their approval expires at the... 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bend not break under higher rates We expect the economy to bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed. We anticipate that real economic growth will remain consistently below its 2% potential... 12th April 2022 · 22 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Relative equity valuations amid a bond market tantrum We suspect the sectors of the equity market where valuations are the lowest will continue to weather the storm of rising bond yields a bit better than others. Drop-In (13 th April, 16:00 SGT/09:00 BST... 12th April 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The surge in energy prices helped drive headline CPI inflation up to a 40-year high of 8.5% in March but, with base effects set to become much more favourable and signs that monthly gains in core... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates set to rise to over 5% Mortgage rates are set to rise to over 5% within the next couple of weeks which will help cool, but not crash, housing market activity. Pent-up demand from the last couple of years as buyers have... 8th April 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed lurching from one extreme to the other The Fed minutes revealed that officials are in a hawkish mood and, after their brief flirtation with the flexible average inflation framework last year, they are now desperate to rapidly recalibrate... 8th April 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Apartment Metro Outlook Following a surge last year, rental growth at the national level is set to slow over the next couple of years as demand falls back and affordability constraints bite. Alongside a gradual rise in... 7th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose last week, beating market expectations of a decline, due to rising domestic production and another sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. If sustained, higher... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) The jobs recovery continued in February, for both total employment and office-based roles. But the divergence in performance of the last two years is persisting, reinforcing our view that many of the... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US yield curve and equities dancing to different tunes The resilience of the US stock market over the past month or so is hard to square with recent inversions in parts of the US Treasury yield curve. While we do not think that these inversions... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Mortgage rates continue their upward climb in March, reaching a 40-month high of 4.9% by the end of the month. As yet, that has done little to cut home purchase demand. Indeed, applications saw a... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
