Global Markets Update So what if Nvidia was priced for perfection? The slide in Nvidia’s shares after the release of its latest consensus-beating results bolsters the argument that it was priced for perfection. But that doesn’t mean its party is over, or that the AI... 29th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to rebound We forecast a healthier 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, alongside a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Wage growth should remain at 3.6%. Together, that would be consistent with... 29th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Nvidia and whether the AI rally has run out of steam We think the AI rally has further to run, despite investors’ apparent disappointment with Nvidia’s rapid profit growth. 29th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Is the discreet strength of European equities already over? For all the talk about AI, equities in Europe have delivered nearly as much as those in the US over the past few years. But we think that US equities will take the lead more clearly over the next year... 28th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Banking on a soft landing It’s perhaps surprising that financials have outperformed the S&P 500 during the recent bout of market turbulence. (See Chart 1.) After all, Treasury yields have fallen and the outlook for the US... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast... 27th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the equity market really back to square one? While the S&P 500 is now nearly back to its all-time high in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish message at Jackson Hole, underlying risk premia are still somewhat larger than before the July... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2024) The muted 0.2% rise in the national Case-Shiller house price index in June was no shock considering that buyer demand collapsed that month, while supply kept growing. With the spring selling season... 27th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The bigger than expected 9.9% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in July was entirely due to a massive rebound in aircraft orders. Excluding transport, core orders fell by 0.2% m/m in July, while... 26th August 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Powell opens the door to further dollar weakness The dovish speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole and the minutes of the FOMC Meeting in July released on Wednesday have left the greenback lower against all G10 currencies this week. This... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly 25bp or 50bp? The dovish speech from Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggests that the Fed will be choosing between a 25bp and a 50bp cut at its meeting in September. A 50bp cut would look less... 23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Jul. 2024) The surge in new home sales in July was driven by pent-up buyers taking advantage of the sharp drop in borrowing costs last month, after having been sidelined earlier this year by high mortgage rates... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole today and pledge to do “everything we can to support a strong labour market” implies that a 50 bp cut could be on the table at the September... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Event US Real Estate Drop-In: Why retail should be back on investors' radars 1725980400 After six consecutive years of underperformance, retail outperformed the all-property average in 2023.
Capital Daily Rising Treasury yields may not help the dollar Even though Treasury yields have edged up today ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow, we think there’s still some scope for them to rise further, as we think too much easing is now... 22nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2024) The small rebound in existing home sales in July seems underwhelming after last month’s large drop in mortgage rates, but the data are based on completed transactions and so it will take at least... 22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
