US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) Month-on-month house price growth rose to a record high in February, as households desperate to buy before interest rates increased bid up the price of those few homes for sale. But the surge in... 26th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The solid increase in durable goods orders in March reflects both easing supply shortages as well as strong underlying investment demand. Business equipment investment is usually one of the more rate... 26th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1 2022) Total returns on the NCREIF index were strong again in Q1, at 5.3% q/q. That was led by industrial, where they reached 11% q/q, with apartments at just over 5% and the other sectors all lagging at... 26th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Divergence in regional mall performance set to persist The squeeze on consumer incomes points to a tough couple of years ahead for regional and super-regional malls, which tend to be more reliant on discretionary spending than other retail property types... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed set to push harder on the brakes With Fed officials seemingly competing to try and sound more hawkish than their peers, a 50bp rate hike next month appears nailed on – even though this week also brought further tentative signs that... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update What the evolving monetary policy outlook means for bonds This Update presents our revised forecasts for the yields of developed market (DM) long-term government bonds, in light of recent market moves and changes to our expectations for monetary policy. 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update There is still likely to be a reckoning for offices We think the recent upturn in office market performance is largely down to the one-off release of pent-up demand and remain downbeat about future prospects. With occupancy still languishing and remote... 21st April 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Can cash buyers keep house prices booming? Rising mortgage interest rates and tight credit conditions pushed the cash buyer share of existing home sales to a six-year high in March. But while the cash buyer share and house price growth are... 21st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Softer housing demand to bring down US lumber price A cooling US housing market will weigh on lumber prices, despite disruption to imports from Canada. We expect the lumber price to continue its downward trend, but to remain well above its 10-year... 21st April 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week on the back of a rise in exports and a decrease in imports. Going forward, though, the US government’s plan to further draw down its strategic oil reserves... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation won’t stop the Fed While we are confident that inflation will fall back sharply in the second half of this year, that will not stop the Fed delivering a series of 50bp rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. Although... 20th April 2022 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Surging mortgage interest rates pushed March existing home sales down to their lowest since the height of COVID-19-restirctions in mid-2020. We expect mortgage rates to rise further over the next year... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) Housing starts rose a by a marginal 0.3% m/m in March, driven by the volatile multifamily sector. Single-family starts saw a small fall, as did building permits. While we expect new home demand to be... 19th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The strong 0.9% rise in industrial production in March reflected a sharp rebound in autos production as well as another big increase in mining output. The US will not be immune to the global slowdown... 15th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Focus Peak in the 10-year Treasury yield may be some way off An analysis of the behaviour of the yield of 10-year US Treasuries during the eight major Fed tightening cycles since the 1970s suggests to us that the current sell-off in long-dated US government... 14th April 2022 · 16 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US value stocks may continue to outperform While the long-running underperformance of US value stocks relative to growth stocks seems linked in part to lower interest rates and structural weakness in the economy, much of it is hard to... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
