US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2022) Consensus forecasts for rents and total returns in 2022 and 2023 have been upgraded in all four sectors since the last survey. But those changes come with property pricing looking more stretched than... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks rose last week on higher imports, lower exports and less crude oil being used by refineries. Implied product demand, meanwhile, was little changed and towards the lower end... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The surge in the trade deficit to a record high of $109.8bn in March, from $89.8bn, was driven by a huge rise in imports as port congestion cleared. We suspect imports will fall back over the coming... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The sharp rise in mortgage rates over the past couple of months, to a 12-year high of 5.37% in the middle of April, is now weighing on mortgage demand. Home purchase applications dropped to their... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions remain tight While the job openings and quits rates both edged up again in March, the bigger picture remains that labour market conditions have been stable over the past nine months or so, with few signs that... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Q1 GDP data give a false steer on US vs euro-zone Uncharacteristically, euro-zone GDP rose while US GDP fell in Q1. But the weak outturn in the US partly reflected temporary factors and domestic spending remained much stronger than in the euro-zone... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 20-month low of 55.4 in April, from 57.1, is mostly due to weakening demand amid a broader slowdown in global manufacturing, rather than a renewed... 2nd May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Home sales and prices to cool as affordability worsens Mortgage rates have risen faster than we originally anticipated and we now expect them to peak at 5.6% in mid-2023. That’s below the level of around 6% which we think risks tiggering a housing market... 29th April 2022 · 18 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to ignore Q1 GDP and hike regardless We doubt that the unexpected 1.4% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP will stop the Fed from hiking its policy rate by a bigger 50bp next week or from launching quantitative tightening. The Fed... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update S&P 500’s valuation suggests downside but not disaster While the valuation of the S&P 500 appears high in absolute terms – even after the falls in the index in 2022 so far – it seems far less stretched once the still historically low real yields of US... 28th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand will continue to cool We expect that employment growth continued to trend lower in April, with non-farm payrolls rising by 375,000. Alongside rebounding participation, that easing in labour demand looks set to drive wage... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) The unexpectedly severe 1.4% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP probably won't stop the Fed from hiking interest rates by 50bp next week, since officials will chalk it up to the temporary impact... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Q1 survey showed a further improvement in sentiment, driven by more confidence in prospects for the office and retail sectors. However, since the survey was conducted, the outlook for growth... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect US big tech will remain under pressure We think that there is plenty of scope for US “big tech” in general to stay under pressure, given the prospects for TIPS and the potential for future earnings to fall short of expectations. 27th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Mar.) The recovery in employment broadly continued in March. However, the laggards in the recovery still look many months away from previous peaks in terms of both total and office-based employment. At the... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed’s hawkish transformation complete We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 50bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and to launch its quantitative tightening, with the cap on maturing principal allowed to roll off each month quickly rising... 27th April 2022 · 7 mins read
