US Economics Weekly Inflation looking better under the hood Fed officials will have been eyeing the flood of red on their screens this week with a growing sense of foreboding. Admittedly, for GDP growth to slow and inflation to fall, they want financial... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update High fuel prices to suppress US oil consumption We expect US fuel prices to remain historically high this year due to supply constraints. As a result, we suspect that oil consumption in the US will remain seasonably low for much of the rest of the... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Southern apartment rent growth unlikely to last forever Over our five-year forecast, we expect in-migration to the South will see apartment rents there outgrow the national average. But further ahead, the greater ability of supply to respond in the South... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Focus We expect the dollar to stay strong as the Fed tightens The trade-weighted US dollar has edged up to multi-decade highs as the Fed has started to raise its policy rate. In this Focus, we analyse past Fed tightening cycles and explain why we think the... 12th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks will be boosted in the coming weeks by the ongoing release of strategic reserves, regardless of what is happening with domestic oil demand. That said, there are now clear signs... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial demand returning to West Coast ports Congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach forced some container ships to reroute to the less busy ports of the Gulf Coast, supporting industrial occupier demand in those markets. But we... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The falls in headline and core inflation in April marks the beginning of a sustained decline, as base effects improve and supply shortages ease, although the 0.6% monthly jump in core prices indicates... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rate rise hits housing market activity The rise in mortgage rates, to a 12-year high in mid-April, is now starting to weigh on housing market activity, with new and existing home sales falling back over the past couple of months. With... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Focus What to expect from QT We expect the Fed to reduce its asset holdings by more than $3trn over the next couple of years, enough to bring the balance sheet back in line with its pre-pandemic level as a share of GDP. That... 10th May 2022 · 12 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Forecast downgrades, but the sky is not about to fall Rises in short-and-long interest rates and the likelihood of further increases over the next 12 months pose a threat to real estate prices. While some have suggested that this will not derail market... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed hikes as acute shortages drive up costs The latest weakness in equities isn't going to stop the Fed from continuing to hike its policy rate by 50bp in June and July, not when labour market conditions remain unusually tight and, in an... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The solid 428,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in April illustrates that the Fed was right to ignore the misleading contraction in first-quarter GDP, with the economy still on a firm footing... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics EUR/USD: The case for parity We think the euro will eventually weaken further, falling to parity against the US dollar, as the euro-zone economy falters, the terms of trade shock from higher energy prices feeds through, and the... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Lessons for markets from the rapid 1994/95 rate hikes The struggles of both bonds and equities during the Fed’s rapid hiking cycle of 1994/95 may provide a warning to investors today. Markets Drop-In (11 th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rise in rates to bring more vacant homes to market Homebuyers looking for more space were contending with low numbers of larger homes for sale in the first quarter, not helped by an apparent rise in investor demand for bigger properties. But rising... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed delivers 50bp hike and QT With the Fed "highly attentive to inflation risks" it raised its policy rate by a bigger 50bp today, to between 0.75% and 1.00%, and launched its quantitative tightening; with the caps on the value of... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
