US Economics Weekly Mounting signs of a slowdown We learned this week that consumer spending lost more momentum through the second quarter than initially thought, while the incoming survey evidence for June suggests the quarter ended on a weak note... 1st July 2022 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth slowing, but no sign of collapse We forecast that payroll employment growth slowed fairly sharply in June, but remained solid at 250,000. That should be enough to keep the Fed on track for another 75bp rate hike in July. Payrolls... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (May) Employment growth slowed last month, but remained above its historic averages. The big gainer in May was Dallas, which recorded the strongest 3m/3m growth in both total and office-based employment... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks fell last week as refineries raised production of petroleum products. However, refineries will probably struggle to raise output much further, with many of them operating near... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Easing shortages to push down core goods inflation There has been little sign that price pressures have eased yet, but the survey evidence suggests that supply shortages continue to improve. That reinforces our view that core goods inflation will fall... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jun.) While our models suggest that recession risks are still low, the Fed’s rapid policy tightening will trigger a marked slowdown in economic growth, which means that the risks are likely to build over... 29th June 2022 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect even higher yields and lower risky asset prices We think developed market government bond yields will rise further while equity and corporate bond prices fall further, as central banks press ahead with tightening and the global economy slows. Drop... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.) House price growth is finally showing signs of slowing, in line with measures of housing market activity which peaked at the start of the year. Soaring mortgage rates are shutting some buyers out of... 28th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The surprisingly robust 0.7% rise in durable goods orders last month was much better than some of the downbeat survey evidence had suggested and is consistent with business equipment investment growth... 27th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Calling the top for US commercial real estate Indicators that include a recently released investor sentiment survey and a sharp fall in REIT prices since the start of the year support our updated view that capital values will go into reverse in... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update The anatomy of a housing market downturn Measures of housing market activity and prices tend to follow a predictable sequence in downturns. In this Update we highlight the key US and UK variables that clients should follow to track the... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) New home sales rose in May, bucking widespread signs of a housing market slowdown. But given the volatility in the data we wouldn’t put too much weight on one month’s reading. After all, new home... 24th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed refuses to blink, as growth fears mount Chair Jerome Powell signalled this week that the Fed will press ahead with its planned series of aggressive interest rate hikes, even as evidence mounts that economic growth will be weak in the second... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears overdone The surge in interest rates, plunge in the stock market and weakness of consumer confidence have fuelled fears of an impending recession, but there is still little sign of that in the incoming... 23rd June 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Revisiting the case for US bank equity outperformance The prospect of weaker economic growth has reduced the appeal of US banks’ equities, even though they may yet benefit from a renewed rise in long-dated Treasury yields and still appear relatively... 23rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We still think the backdrop is favourable for the US dollar Although it has fallen back a little recently, we continue to think the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies as global economic growth disappoints. Asia Drop-In (30 th June, 09:00... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
