US Commercial Property Outlook Southern metros to outperform Since the release of our previous Apartment Metro Outlook three months ago the interest rate environment has become more negative for real estate, and we now expect yields to rise in many metros this... 12th July 2022 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why this price correction will be nothing like the GFC Although we expect a comparable rise in interest rates to that which preceded the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we think the risk of a credit-driven bust in the commercial real estate market is low... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Strong demand for US natural gas to keep prices high After a period of extreme volatility, we expect the price of US natural gas to edge higher in the remainder of this year. Together, a rise in LNG exports and a pick-up in US consumption this winter... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus Is a recession coming soon? We think that the economy is well-placed to handle higher interest rates and anticipate a period of weak economic growth rather than an outright recession: Rate-sensitive spending is a relatively... 11th July 2022 · 17 mins read
US Economics Weekly Market moves may give the Fed an easier task With the June employment report suggesting fears of an imminent recession are misplaced, the Fed looks set to press ahead with aggressive rate hikes over the coming months. That said, recent sharp... 8th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We think US and EZ corporate spreads will stay high While the largest increases in corporate spreads in the US and the euro-zone may now be behind us, we suspect that a challenging economic backdrop will keep spreads elevated in both places for some... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The strong 372,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June appears to make a mockery of claims the economy is heading into, let alone already in, a recession. That may be enough to solidify the case for... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equities may underperform bonds if earnings falter As forecasts for corporate earnings in the US finally start to come down amid worries about the outlook for the economy there, this Update considers the implications for equities and bonds. 8th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose owing to a fall in net exports and lower inputs to refineries. For now, implied product demand remains in line with its seasonal norm, but we expect demand to be soft... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What would it take to generate an even stronger US dollar? We forecast a further ~2% appreciation of the trade-weighted US dollar over the rest of this year. But we continue to think that the risks are skewed towards even greater dollar strength. This Update... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The further narrowing in the trade deficit in May reflects the strength of exports and implies that net trade provided a decent boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was close to 1%... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications for home purchase saw a slight recovery over the course of June as mortgage interest rates eased back. But demand remains depressed compared to its pre-COVID-19 level and a... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The sharp slowdown in money growth is set to continue as the Fed’s monetary tightening ramps up, but the resilience of bank lending suggests the impact on the economy will be limited. Payrolls Drop-In... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office Metro Outlook In light of the deterioration in the economic environment, our office metro forecasts have been downgraded across the board. Those downgrades are driven by a substantial shift in our yield view, which... 1st July 2022 · 14 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year low of 53.0 in June, from 56.1, will probably add to fears over the health of the economy. That said, for now it is still consistent on past form... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Looser mortgage standards won’t keep the party going In contrast to the mid-2000s, there seems little chance of a significant loosening in mortgage lending standards in response to higher interest rates today. Traditional banks have not forgotten the... 1st July 2022 · 12 mins read
