US Chart Pack Economic growth to remain muted in H2 The incoming activity data now show clearer signs of weakness, particularly in the most interest-rate sensitive components of spending. But there are still few signs of that moderation morphing into a... 21st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks fell last week, largely on the back of a rise in exports and a drop in imports. The fall came despite another bumper release from the strategic reserve. As those government stock... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales dropped again in June, taking them to below their pre-COVID peak. With affordability looking as stretched as it was during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), home buyer sentiment... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Another 75bp hike on the way The Fed is set to hike interest rates by 75bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, taking the target range to between 2.25% and 2.50%. Officials won’t rule out the possibility of a third consecutive 75bp hike... 20th July 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Single-family housing starts fell by a sizeable 8.1% m/m in June, following a 9.0% m/m drop in May. With rising mortgage rates continuing to weigh on demand, homebuilder confidence plummeted in July... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jun.) CRE lending growth was again strong in June, but outside of the multifamily sector, there are signs the rate of growth may have peaked. And with investment transactions slowing, we expect a... 18th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation up, but better news coming The bigger-than-expected rise in CPI inflation to 9.1% in June triggered speculation that the Fed might follow the Bank of Canada with a 100bp rate hike later this month. But the disappointing... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Stronger signs that office sector distress will grow The large-scale deterioration in office NOIs that we predicted would occur by the end of 2025 appears, on the face of it, to be some way off. But offices are the only sector seeing rising delinquency... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The decline in industrial production in June, led by a fall in manufacturing output, could reflect weaker demand for goods, but we suspect that it is also due to the zero-covid shutdowns in China... 15th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing activity contracts even as rates stabilise The upward trend in mortgage rates took a breather over the past month, but that didn’t provide much of a boost to housing market activity. Existing home sales have fallen for four months in a row... 15th July 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the dollar’s rally With the DXY index surging to a fresh 20-year high, the US dollar has reached our end-2022 forecasts against several of the other major currencies. While we are sticking to our current forecasts for... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The impact of QT on Treasury yields We think “quantitative tightening” (QT) may put upward pressure on long-dated Treasury yields over the coming years. But we think that changes in investors’ expectations for the fed funds rate will... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even if inflation eases While we expect upcoming US CPI reports to be more encouraging than June’s one, we still think that the yield of 10-year Treasuries will rise further over the remainder of this year. 13th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total crude stocks fell again, mainly due to ongoing sales from the strategic reserve. That said, the big news was hefty builds in petroleum product stocks, suggesting that high prices are finally... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger than expected 1.3% rise in consumer prices in June, which pushed headline inflation to 9.1%, from 8.6%, nails on another 75bp rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. But with commodity prices... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
