US Rapid Response International Trade (Jul. 2024) The July trade data suggest that net trade will weigh on third-quarter GDP growth, but that is hardly cause for concern when it reflects the continued strength of imports, painting a better picture of... 4th September 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Could the stock market ride out a recession? Investors' concerns about the health of the US economy have intensified again, contributing to a selloff in global equity markets. The US stock market rode out an earnings recession last year thanks... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Aug. 2024) The drop in home purchase mortgage applications in August is surprising given the sharp fall in mortgage rates the month before. Some would-be buyers may be delaying their purchases due to increased... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Immigration will support largest multifamily markets While the headline-hitting surge in immigration last year was mainly driven by a spike in unauthorized movement, legal immigration has picked up from its pandemic lows, which is good news for many... 3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How does S&P 500 sector performance align with the ISM? A disappointingly small rebound in the headline index of the US ISM manufacturing survey for August appears to have put some relative pressure on cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 today, which is down... 3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug. 2024) The ISM manufacturing index was essentially unchanged in August, leaving it consistent with manufacturing output and GDP growth losing momentum in the third quarter, and a sharp drop in the new orders... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What if the Fed and the ECB underdeliver? US and euro-zone inflation data released today did little to change our view that both the Fed and the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp in September, as investors seem to expect. But we think both... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Harris plans major tax hikes After unveiling plans to boost spending and cut taxes for the middle-class in a big speech a couple of weeks ago, Vice President Kamala Harris has quietly acknowledged since then that she intends to... 30th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Canada EV tariffs; Is Trump warming to EVs? While Canada's tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles are unlikely to have a major impact on China's green exports, it is another example of broader global fracturing between China and the West... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Jul.) The July income and spending report shows price pressures remaining muted despite the strength of real consumption. The latter suggests that third-quarter consumption growth will be 3.7%. Even... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update So what if Nvidia was priced for perfection? The slide in Nvidia’s shares after the release of its latest consensus-beating results bolsters the argument that it was priced for perfection. But that doesn’t mean its party is over, or that the AI... 29th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to rebound We forecast a healthier 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, alongside a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Wage growth should remain at 3.6%. Together, that would be consistent with... 29th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Nvidia and whether the AI rally has run out of steam We think the AI rally has further to run, despite investors’ apparent disappointment with Nvidia’s rapid profit growth. 29th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Is the discreet strength of European equities already over? For all the talk about AI, equities in Europe have delivered nearly as much as those in the US over the past few years. But we think that US equities will take the lead more clearly over the next year... 28th August 2024 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Banking on a soft landing It’s perhaps surprising that financials have outperformed the S&P 500 during the recent bout of market turbulence. (See Chart 1.) After all, Treasury yields have fallen and the outlook for the US... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast... 27th August 2024 · 3 mins read
