Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The large fall in US commercial crude stocks was mostly due to a renewed rise in exports. Implied gasoline demand rose for a second consecutive week, but this failed to lift prices amid growing... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weighing up the relative prospects for stock market sectors We think the macroeconomic backdrop that we envisage is consistent with certain “defensive” sectors of the S&P 500 – utilities, healthcare and consumer staples – outperforming over the rest of this... 17th August 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) While overall retail sales were unchanged in July, the details were far more encouraging, with a price-related fall in gasoline sales freeing up households to increase spending on other goods. With... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production in July was much stronger than we expected and provides another clear sign that the economy is still in expansionary territory. That said, the likely drag on... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Single-family housing starts fell for the fifth consecutive month in July, leaving them down by 25% from their high at the end of 2021. Leading indicators point to a much larger decline in the coming... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jul.) CRE lending was again exceptionally strong in July, outpacing even the gains seen in recent months. But with investment transaction totals softening in Q2 and our expectation of a further slowdown in... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar falters on continued risk-on rally The US dollar continued to struggle this week as equity markets extended their rebound and commodity prices also rallied: the currencies of commodity exporters and other economies most exposed to... 12th August 2022 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Stretched affordability to hit sales and prices Despite a reduction in our mortgage rate forecast, affordability is still set to be as stretched as it was during the mid-2000s housing boom. Alongside record-low homebuyer sentiment and a slowing... 12th August 2022 · 18 mins read
US Economics More good news on inflation coming soon The drop back in CPI inflation in July wasn’t enough alone to convince Fed officials to change their plans for interest rate hikes. But we expect the better news on inflation to continue over the... 12th August 2022 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Global trends point to a more difficult decade ahead Commercial property wasn’t initially hit by the worsening in economic conditions at the turn of the year, but there are now growing signs of anxiety. Not only that, but even if the economic gloom is... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we don’t think the dollar has peaked yet Although we think the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle is drawing nearer and that yields of long-term US Treasuries have already peaked for this cycle, we don’t believe this necessarily spells the end of... 11th August 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Is there really such thing as a ‘jobful’ recession? While history shows that recessions can begin even while employment is still rising, the current rate of payroll employment growth is far too strong to be consistent with an economic downturn. By the... 11th August 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in delinquencies not a major threat The rise in new delinquencies on consumer loans over the first half of the year mostly reflects rising interest costs. With debt levels low, real incomes on track to begin rising again amid a drop... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of the fall in participation With most workers who left during the pandemic mostly returned to the labour force by early 2022, it is little surprise that growth of the labour force has slowed. But the decline in the participation... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The six major markets will not be the only losers Pandemic-accelerated migration patterns were already driving outperformance in the southern states. But they have also brought the poor performance of weaker markets to the fore. With those structural... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
