US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Another deterioration but valuations may have troughed Despite a stabilisation in property yields, valuation scores fell again in Q2 on the back of further rises in alternative asset yields. Apartment and industrial pricing look most stretched, but also... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market still hot We forecast a smaller, but still rapid, 350,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.5%. We’ll be discussing the US August employment report in an online Drop... 25th August 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Student loan changes arguably a fiscal tightening President Biden has finally unveiled a plan to forgive some student debt via executive order. But the accompanying announcement that the pandemic-era moratorium on student debt will definitely expire... 25th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Foreclosure rate headed for a small bump With the vast majority of mortgage borrowers protected by fixed rates, it is not a surprise that the early delinquency rate has risen only marginally since the start of the year. And our forecasts for... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Defensive stock market sectors may continue to outperform Defensive sectors of the S&P 500 have outperformed during its recent slump, a trend which we generally expect to continue. While the S&P 500 has opened broadly flat today, the index has fallen by ~4%... 24th August 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Recoveries still lagging in the major coastal markets Q2 data showed a mixed picture across the three sectors. For offices, the northern coastal markets continue to lag, with rent growth turning positive but still weaker than most other markets. Houston... 24th August 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The stagnation in durable goods orders in July was principally due to a 50% m/m slump in defence aircraft orders, which are both volatile and not reflective of the strength of private demand... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Rebounding real incomes to support consumption After a year-long contraction in real disposable incomes, the sharp declines in energy prices over recent weeks are finally providing some relief. Alongside continued strong employment growth, we... 22nd August 2022 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Property yields set to rise in H2 As the economy slowed in Q2 and interest rates rose, investors appear to have become less willing to compete property yields lower and investment volumes look close to turning. While occupier demand... 22nd August 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of dividend futures and the outlook for equities Dividend futures prices suggest to us there may be more downside for global equity prices. 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Better news for the Fed going into Jackson Hole With the rebound in activity growth in July coming against a backdrop of easing inflation, we still think the Fed will hike rates by a smaller 50bp next month. 19th August 2022 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) Higher mortgage rates led to another fall in existing home sales in July, which are now down by 26% from their peak in January. We expect a further fall of close to 5% by end-2022 to 4.6m annualised... 19th August 2022 · 2 mins read
