US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The slower pace of payroll gains in August, together with the big rebound in the labour force, and the more modest increase in wages, would seem to favour a smaller 50bp rate hike from the Fed next... 2nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The stabilisation in the ISM manufacturing index at 52.8 in August, unchanged from July, provides some further reassurance that the economy is not yet sliding into recession. While the details suggest... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Apartment completions set for multi-decade high The jump in multifamily housing starts in the first half of 2022 implies a surge in completions over the next couple of years to a multi-decade high. But while rental demand is now moderating, the... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update New ADP surveys may be more useful in time The new ADP surveys of employment and wages, unveiled today, have the potential to be a useful independent source of labour market data, but for now their value is hampered by their short history. 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude oil stocks fell last week for the third week running, despite another release from strategic reserves. We think commercial stocks will remain under pressure over the coming weeks... 31st August 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jul.) Almost all metros saw further gains in total employment in July, with Dallas continuing to lead, and joined by Houston, Charlotte and Miami as the fastest growers. But office-based employment growth... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Aug.) Our composite tracking models suggest that the chances of a recession within the next year have risen markedly. That said, the immediate risks still appear to be low, with the boost to real incomes... 31st August 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update How will the midterms affect the economic outlook? The Republican party is on track to regain control of at least the House in the upcoming midterms, though the recent narrowing in the polls means that is no longer the slam dunk it once appeared... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun.) House price growth hit the buffers in June, with Case-Shiller and FHFA reporting a sharp slowdown in month-on-month gains. Higher mortgage interest rates have stretched affordability and cut housing... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We see little chance of a GFC-style collapse in US REITs While we think that US REITs have further to fall over the rest of this year, we doubt that they will fare nearly as badly as they did during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), nor underperform... 30th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus A deep dive into the US stock market’s relative performance In this Focus, we make the case that mid-and large-cap equities in the US will not, in general, continue to outperform those in other developed markets, despite the fact that such outperformance has... 26th August 2022 · 25 mins read
US Economics Weekly With inflation outlook improving, pivot is still on In a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued that “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
