US Fed Watch Peak hawkishness to continue for a little longer The continued strength of core inflation points to another 75bp rate hike at next week’s Fed meeting and rates may now rise slightly higher than we previously thought. But the FOMC’s new projections... 14th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Despite price pressures, we still expect Treasury yields to fall Despite the hot US inflation data released earlier today, we still think long-term Treasury yields will eventually fall as disinflationary pressures grow. 13th September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m increase in core consumer prices in August, double the consensus expectation, confirms that the Fed will hike its policy rate by at least 75bp next week. Nevertheless, that outsized... 13th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation may not rise, even if oil prices do US inflation compensation has declined over recent weeks as oil prices have fallen back. But this relationship isn’t set in stone and, even if oil prices rise again, inflation compensation may not. 12th September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Aug.) CRE lending saw an even stronger rise in August than in July, with multifamily and other commercial sectors both seeing a large increase in outstanding debt. But there are signs that the rate of... 12th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How the stock-bond correlation may be shifting We suspect the positive correlation between the prices of US equities and Treasuries may fade over the next year or so, and perhaps turn somewhat negative. 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Price correction to prove relatively small this time around Higher interest rates mean that real estate looks significantly overpriced in all sectors. The latest activity and performance data suggest that a correction is underway, but as we now think the 10... 9th September 2022 · 25 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will pivotal CPI data sway hawkish Fed? In the run-up to the Fed’s next policy announcement on 21 st September, the release of August’s consumer price data next Tuesday could still be pivotal in determining whether the Fed will follow the... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price growth expectations turn negative Stretched affordability continued to weigh on housing market activity in July and August, leaving mortgage applications for home purchase down by 40% from their high in January. A renewed rise in... 9th September 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Update Are markets really braced for further volatility? Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update A closer look at the diverging activity surveys We think the S&P Global composite PMI’s prediction of an imminent plunge in GDP will prove well wide of the mark, with the latest hard data pointing to growth of 3% annualised in the third quarter. At... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The trade deficit narrowed to a nine-month low of $70.7bn in July, from $80.9bn, driven by a sizeable drop back in consumer goods imports, although almost half that decline was due to lower imports of... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Home purchase applications fell for a fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down by 40% from their high in January. With mortgage rates once again rising and against a backdrop of stretched... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Normalising payrolls may not be enough to push equities up With pressure on the Fed easing, we think long-term Treasury yields will fall slightly over the remainder of this year, although we don’t think that will stop the S&P 500 from declining. 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
