Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks rose for the third successive week in part due to a bounce back in imports, but also subdued domestic demand. The backdrop of rising interest rates and still-high prices suggest... 21st September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) We doubt the smaller 0.4% m/m fall in existing home sales in August marks a floor for activity. Indeed, it is line with the levelling off in mortgage demand seen in July as the rise in mortgage rates... 21st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market already firmly braced for a hawkish FOMC The extent of the monetary tightening now discounted in the US ahead of today’s decision by the FOMC suggests to us that long-term Treasury yields are likely to fall back in due course. 21st September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Government bond yields and the outlook for the US dollar We think the US dollar will rally further against most major currencies even if, as we expect, it doesn’t receive much more support from interest rate differentials. 20th September 2022 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Disinflationary wave is building The Fed looks set to deliver a third consecutive 75bp rate hike tomorrow, but if we’re right that inflation will fall back soon, officials will quickly pivot to much smaller hikes. The continued drop... 20th September 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Housing starts surprised on the upside in August, rising for the first time in six months. But we still expect them to fall further this year as stretched affordability continues to weigh on new home... 20th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Phoenix knocked off top spot by southern markets We expect a sharp slowdown in apartment rental growth across the board, as job growth slows, affordability constraints bite and an influx of supply pushes up vacancy. But some markets will perform... 16th September 2022 · 15 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker growth will bear down on inflation soon The economic data this week suggest that slowing activity growth isn’t yet putting downward pressure on core inflation, which is likely to see the Fed remain in hawkish mode at its meeting next week... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Peak inflation and the prospects for equities Although we think this week’s disappointing CPI report in the US is just a bump on the road towards much lower inflation, and that today’s rather disappointing news on retail sales and industrial... 15th September 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) Manufacturing output edged up by 0.1% m/m in August, as notable gains in petroleum & coal, machinery and electronics were partly offset by a drop back in motor vehicles and parts. With global... 15th September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The stagnation in underlying retail sales in August suggests that plunging gasoline prices are not providing any significant boost to real consumption. But that could change over the coming months as... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What moves in oil prices might mean for markets The recent decline in oil prices has weighed on some equity market indices and come alongside a decline in US inflation compensation, but we don’t think those moves will unwind much even if, as we... 15th September 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Which apartment markets look most overvalued? A forward-looking fair value analysis of the 17 apartment metros that we forecast suggests that Phoenix and the Western markets look most overvalued. This insight underpins the changes to our yield... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
