US Economics Weekly Economy weak despite export strength The revised GDP data released this week confirm the economy was already struggling ahead of the more recent tightening in financial conditions. Although surging exports appear to have driven a strong... 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Sharper slowdown to come We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a solid 275,000 in September, but a much sharper slowdown looks likely as the Fed’s aggressive tightening feeds through. 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US equities don’t seem to be factoring in a gloomier economy The plunge in the stock market in the US that has accompanied the recent ratcheting up of rate expectations there has been partly blamed on concerns that more aggressive Fed tightening is undermining... 28th September 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Aug.) The greater number of metros seeing a decline in total jobs in August comes as little surprise given the slowdown in the national data this month. But for the major six metros and poorer performing... 28th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Jul./Aug.) The fall in prices reported by the FHFA in July supports our view of a sustained decline over the next 12 months. With mortgage rates rising to above 6% in September, we think it is only a matter of... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 0.2% m/m fall in durable goods orders in August wasn’t as bad as we expected and suggests that business equipment investment is, for now at least, still holding up in the face of surging interest... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Powell channels Volcker, yen intervention & sterling breaks Another eventful week in financial markets has seen the US dollar strengthen across the board as the FOMC’s 75bp hike and Chair Powell’s hawkish message hammered risk sentiment. The dollar is now near... 23rd September 2022 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Dallas offices set to lead the pack for rents and returns The overriding story this quarter is that although weak demand and steady inventory growth in the next couple of years will push up vacancy in many metros, we still see asking rents growing solidly as... 23rd September 2022 · 14 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Three key threats to equities from rising bond yields The surge in bond yields that has accompanied the ratcheting up of rate expectations in the US has soured the outlook for the stock market there in three key ways. First, by raising the required... 23rd September 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed resolute in battle to slay the inflationary dragon The Fed’s transformation from inflation-denier back to Volcker-style inflation-slayer is all but complete. As Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his press conference this week, “we have got to get... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for US Treasuries With the Fed still clearly in a hawkish mood, we have revised up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield. We now expect it to be around its current level at the end of this year, in contrast with... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed delivers a hawkish 75bp hike The Fed stuck to the script in delivering a 75bp rate hike at its September meeting, but in our view still managed to deliver a hawkish message with the accompanying projections, which imply an... 21st September 2022 · 3 mins read
