US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The 263,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September is another signal that labour market conditions are cooling. But with the unemployment rate dropping back to 3.5% the report is unlikely to... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling rent-frees do not point to an office recovery REIS data show rent-free periods dropped back in the first half of the year, hinting at a tightening market. But with occupiers still rationalising their office portfolios, we expect vacancy to tick... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices to fall by 8% Against a backdrop of higher mortgage rates, a weaker economy and prices falling earlier than expected, we have cut our forecast and now expect a peak-to-trough fall in house prices of 8%, down from... 6th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Sep.) In light of the Fed’s increasingly aggressive monetary tightening, we now think the economy is headed for a mild recession early next year. Our composite tracking models support that forecast, with... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the fleeting bounce in the US stock market Today’s sizeable pull-back in the US stock market after a much brighter start to the month fits with our view that it is not yet out of the woods. We don’t expect it continue to struggle for the... 5th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The fall in US commercial crude stocks last week is just one factor pushing the Brent crude price over $93 today, with the other being the decision by OPEC+ to cut its output quota by 2m bpd from... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Charlotte office rental growth to outpace US average We think the Charlotte office market will continue to outperform the US average, as firms capitalise on the city’s affordability and position as a prominent financial district. As such, even though... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Recession will add to disinflationary pressure We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The further sharp decline in the trade deficit to $67.4bn in August, from $70.5bn, means that net exports provided a big boost to third-quarter GDP growth. But the twin drags from the surging dollar... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug.) & ADP Employment (Sep.) 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The sixth consecutive month of falling home purchase activity in September was driven by a sharp rise in mortgage rates to 6.75% at the end of the month. With a significant easing in credit conditions... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Market uncertainty pushes up mortgage rates An upward revision to our 10-year Treasury yield forecast and a widening in spreads have led us to upgrade our mortgage rate forecasts. We now expect the 30-year fixed rate will stay close to 6.5% for... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The sharper than expected fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.9 in September, from 52.8, leaves it consistent with GDP growth of just 0.5% annualised. The weakness in activity is helping to ease... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
