US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) With retail sales unchanged in September there is still little evidence that the boost to purchasing power from the earlier sharp fall in gasoline prices has helped real consumption. Energy prices are... 14th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update What still-hot inflation means for US Treasuries Despite the hot September US CPI print from yesterday, we still expect Treasury yields to drop back over time. And we think the drop will mostly be driven by falls in the real yield, rather than... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update End of QT may come sooner than first thought While the Fed isn’t likely to follow the Bank of England in pausing QT in response to upward pressure on long-term government bond yields, the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet could end sooner and... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We still think US Treasury yields will fall back eventually Although core inflationary pressures in the US seem more persistent than we and most others had anticipated, we still think Treasury yields are near their peak and will fall in time. 13th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Saudi relations, Lebanon maritime deal, Tunisia crisis The past week has brought further evidence that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has soured after OPEC+ opted to cut oil quotas – Saudi Arabia is clearly leaning away from the US orbit... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The stronger than expected 0.4% rise in consumer prices in September, driven yet again by a stronger increase in core prices, nails on a 75bp rate hike at the November meeting and, in contrast to the... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Sector allocation as the economic outlook darkens We think that traditional “defensive” sectors of the US stock market – consumer staples, health care and utilities – will continue to hold up better than “tech-orientated” sectors – information... 12th October 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growth downgrades to dent real estate returns in 2023 With a mild recession now built into our forecast, the outlook for commercial real estate performance has worsened. But because this is a relatively small downgrade and it is joined by an expectation... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We don’t expect the relative rout in US REITs to persist Although we think that US equity REITs may have further to fall, we don’t expect them to continue to underperform the broader US stock market. The key reason is that we don’t expect Treasury yields to... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls point to yields staying high, for now Today’s strong September US employment report added support to the view that Treasury yields will stay high, and the S&P 500 will remain under pressure, for a while yet. But we still think yields will... 7th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update S&P 500 may fall even further than we’d thought With the Fed seemingly still in a hawkish mood and the US and global economies struggling, we now expect the S&P 500 to decline further than we’d previously thought. 7th October 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will the Fed’s tightening trigger financial instability? The recent liquidity issues faced by UK pensions funds and problems at a few European banks have led to speculation that the Fed’s interest rate hikes will trigger some form of financial instability... 7th October 2022 · 9 mins read
