US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The October employment report had something for everyone, with continued strong gains on the payroll survey while the household measure showed a sharp fall in employment and a rise in unemployment... 4th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Will October CPI justify more hawkish noises from the Fed? 1668092400 Our US Economics team held a briefing shortly after the October data release, in which they answered client questions and addressed key issues around what was happening at the Fed and Congress, inc
Precious Metals Update Gold and silver prices to rise next year Gold and silver prices fell following Chair Powell’s hawkish comments yesterday. But if we are right in thinking US rates won’t rise by as much as markets expect, gold and silver prices should... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update What the latest central bank signals mean for markets The differing tones of the Fed, ECB and BoE at their recent meetings have seen yields rise in the US more than elsewhere and reignited the rally in the US dollar. That pattern could last a few more... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Int’l Trade (Sep.) and Productivity & Labour Costs (Q3) A drop back in exports and small rebound in imports means the trade deficit bounced back to $73.3bn in September, from a downwardly revised $65.7bn. With that weakness in exports likely to last for... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Sep.) & Productivity and Labour Costs (Q3) 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed's Powell remains resolutely hawkish The Fed raised its policy rate by another 75bp today, to between 3.75% and 4.00%, but laid the groundwork in the accompanying statement for a downshift to a 50bp hike at the next meeting in mid... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The changing drivers of this year’s sell-off in the S&P 500 Downward revisions to expectations for earnings have taken a toll in the second half this year so far on the S&P 500, which had been under pressure in the first half from a discount-rate-driven drop... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Oct.) Our composite tracking models suggest that the economy is increasingly likely to fall into recession in 2023, although the risks of a downturn beginning before the end of this year still appear... 2nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What a change in tack by the Fed could mean for markets We think an eventual Fed “pivot” will push down long-term Treasury yields, although it may not help the stock market much nor prevent a renewed US dollar rally. 2nd November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) Employment continues to trend higher across the 30 metros, but nearly half remain short of pre-pandemic peaks, including all six major metros. Indeed, with job growth slowing, we don't expect... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus Broad-based decline in core inflation coming soon Despite the unanticipated strength in recent months, there are still good reasons to expect core inflation to fall markedly next year. That moderation will not require a deep recession and/or... 2nd November 2022 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) On the back of a rise in mortgage rates to above 7%, home purchase applications took another step down in October. That points to further declines in home sales in the coming months. With mortgage... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
