US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales to remain weak, despite fall in mortgage rates A fall in mortgage rates from 20-year highs supported the first rise in home purchase demand in eight months in November. Given that mortgage rates are likely to continue to trend lower from here... 14th December 2022 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Blackstone and Starwood symptoms rather than causes On the face of it, the news of unlisted REITs reaching redemptions limits suggests cause for concern as it could point to forced sales over the coming months. However, both BREIT and SREIT have solid... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think US disinflation will prevent a drop in US equities The weaker US inflation data released today have bolstered our view that Treasury yields will drop a bit between now and the end of next year. But we still think that growing fears of a recession will... 13th December 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Wage growth slowdown to drive inflation even lower Despite some mixed signals in the recent data, we still expect the tentative easing of labour market conditions already seen to push wage growth lower soon, with that slowdown gathering pace as... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The Fed will still hike its policy rate by 50bp tomorrow and the new projections could show the peak in rates above 5%, but the 0.2% m/m increase in core consumer prices in November provides strong... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rally in DM government bond is mostly behind us With nominal bond yields having fallen considerably over the past month, we think there is now less scope for developed market government bonds to rally over the next couple of years. 12th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to expect if US inflation really has peaked? The real returns from both US equities and 10-year Treasuries have often been quite good in the couple of years after past peaks in core inflation in the US, but the period following peak inflation in... 12th December 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov.) CRE lending grew solidly again in November, at a rate close to the six-month average, with other commercial sectors picking up the slack from slower growth in multifamily lending. Although lending... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We think US corporate bond spreads will widen again Although US corporate bond spreads have been falling since mid-October, we expect them to rise again before long as the global economy slips into recession. 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Does the tripledemic pose a new economic threat? The worsening tripledemic of Covid, influenza and RSV is unlikely to have a significant impact on economic growth, but it could weigh on employment and hours worked over the next few months. 11th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed could be upstaged by CPI data The Fed is used to holding centre stage, but next Wednesday’s policy announcement could end up being overshadowed by the November CPI data, due for release on Tuesday. If we’re right and core prices... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury rally may almost have run its course We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to decline only a little further as US inflation continues to ease. 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the timing and scale of a sustained rebound in the S&P 500 We suspect that the S&P 500 will make a new cyclical low by the spring of 2023 as a shallow recession gets underway in the US, before rebounding to end next year higher than it is now. In view of the... 8th December 2022 · 4 mins read
