US Commercial Property Update Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent... 14th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Oct. 2024) The price data released this week suggest that inflationary pressures are proving stronger than the Fed anticipated. Based on the combined CPI and PPI data, we calculate that the Fed’s preferred core... 14th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update One US deficit that won’t worry Trump President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation might soon be front-page news again While investors shrugged off today’s news on US inflation, they seem increasingly concerned about its longer-term outlook. We share their view and expect Treasury yields to rise a bit further still. 13th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy 1731502800 Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth discusses how Donald Trump’s return could influence the US economic outlook in this 22-minute video presentation.
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The third consecutive 0.3% m/m gain in the core CPI in October is somewhat concerning, with our preliminary calculations pointing to another above-target-consistent 0.22 m/m gain in core PCE prices... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will Trump’s next trade war upend the S&P 500? We doubt the S&P 500 will come a cropper in 2025 even though the index fell in 2018 when Donald Trump began to wage a less ambitious trade war than the one he is planning now. 12th November 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2024) The sharp decline in the 10-year Treasury yield in Q3 meant marked improvement in our property valuation scores. That left all-property looking “fairly valued” for the first time since the end of 2021... 11th November 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will Trump really be good for US equities? We expect the policies that will be delivered during Donald Trump’s second term to be a headwind for equities in the US. We still anticipate strong gains next year on the back of growing AI-enthusiasm... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Will Trump be good or bad for the economy? The market reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory suggests that, with the Republicans closing in on a clean sweep of Congress too, his return to the White House will be a net positive for the... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov. 2024) The rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, despite uncertainty ahead of the US election, shows that economic developments remain the key driver of confidence in the aggregate... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How Europe will try to defuse a Trump trade war Following the US election, our working assumption is that the US imposes a 10% universal tariff next year which subtracts around 0.2% from euro-zone GDP – somewhat less than many estimate. But the EU... 8th November 2024 · 8 mins read
