US Economics Weekly Was April the sweetest or the cruellest month? After a quiet week for data this week, following April’s softer Employment Report, things will heat up again next week with April’s CPI report. 10th May 2024 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Storms on the horizon for West Coast port markets After a prolonged period of weakness, the West Coast ports have seen an improvement in trade volumes recently. However, industrial demand in these markets remains very weak and growing headwinds –... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Europe’s mega-cap breakfast may remain less than magnificent The shares of the very biggest, ‘mega-cap’, firms have generally outperformed those of smaller ones by less in Europe than they have in the US on net so far this decade. We expect that to remain the... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Confidence (May) The renewed slump in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge to a six-month low of 67.4 in May, from 77.2, is hard to explain given that gasoline prices are now falling again, the stock... 10th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Shutting out institutional buyers won’t lower house prices Lawmakers' current efforts to restrict institutional buying of single-family homes won’t put downward pressure on house prices if enacted, as their market share is minimal. 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Apr. 2024) The small rebound in mortgage demand in March proved short-lived, as higher borrowing costs caused home purchase mortgage applications to drop 2.3% m/m in April. But the 10-year Treasury yield’s... 8th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads can’t fall forever The near-relentless narrowing in US credit spreads over the past year or so has left them at their lowest levels since late 2021. This echoes similarly upbeat pricing in the stock market. But, while... 7th May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Banks easing credit conditions amid weak demand The second-quarter Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey revealed that, a year after the regional banking crisis, only a modest net share of banks are still tightening lending standards. 6th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fundamentals point to slower wage growth Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference this week that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still “unlikely”. We still... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Employment Report provides some cheer for markets Today’s favourable reaction in the US stock market to April's softer-than-expected Employment Report has coincided with renewed hopes of interest rate cuts, judging by the initial plunge in the 2-year... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Apr.) April’s employment report was weaker across the board; with employment growth slowing back to the pace from last fall, the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% and average hourly earnings growth... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Powell’s cautious message points to lower UST yields This week’s FOMC meeting supports our view that bond yields will fall back a bit further this year. 2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US relations, NEOM financing, Morocco and the IMF Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the US are close to reaching a new security pact which, if confirmed, could swing the Kingdom back towards the US's orbit. Meanwhile, Saudi’s flagship gigaproject... 2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update San Francisco the poster child for the donut effect With downtowns generally suffering most from the growth in remote work, the hardest-hit cities such as San Francisco are now seeing this impact other revenue streams too, not least tourism. While... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read