Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes showing on all policy radars The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless... 26th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will resume hikes in March After twelve years in the job, Øystein Olsen was never going to spring a surprise at his last meeting in charge of the Norges Bank. Instead, the Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We do not expect the recent dollar weakness to last Despite several events in the US this week which would usually point to a stronger dollar – the highest US inflation print since the early 1980s, hawkish comments from both Chair Powell and Vice Chair... 14th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Estimating the carbon transition risk to property values Real estate potentially has a significant role to play in helping achieve ambitious climate targets. We have estimated the size of the risks in the transition to net zero for the commercial property... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to take pause, as Olsen bows out Norwegian policymakers will keep interest rates on hold, at +0.50%, next Thursday, before resuming their tightening cycle in March. We forecast one rate hike per quarter this year, which is one more... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Dec.) While Norwegian policymakers do not have as laser-like a focus on consumer price inflation as most, the increase in the core rate in Norway in December only lends support to our hawkish view that the... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB to take ECB’s lead; Stoltenberg for NB? Having drawn flak from domestic banks for keeping interest rates well below zero since 2015, the SNB would surely take the chance to raise its policy rate at the earliest possibility after the ECB... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to stay ahead of the Fed as SNB holds pat While the Swiss National Bank maintained the status quo once again this morning (yawn), the Norges Bank continued its tightening cycle, as expected, and opened the door to another rate hike in March... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline inflation reached a 13-year high in November, mainly driven by energy inflation. But the core rate was more subdued and is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target throughout 2022. 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to hike as planned, despite Omicron Omicron means that a Norges Bank rate hike next Thursday is no longer as nailed on a prospect as it once was, but we still think that policymakers will decide to raise rates to +0.50%. Meanwhile... 9th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Values to rise further The rebound in economic activity and robust investor demand paved the way for a continued improvement in Scandinavian and Swiss property markets in Q3. Office and industrial values rose further, as... 23rd November 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Fossil-like Norway won’t go the way of the dinosaurs The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, will not have any discernible impact on Norway’s intention to keep pumping oil and gas over the coming decades. The irony is that Norway’s success in... 10th November 2021 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell to below 1% in October and is likely to remain at around this level until early 2023 will not stop policymakers from pressing on with... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Déjà vu at the SNB; labour shortages reach Greenland The renewed rise in the Swiss franc has lifted it back to territory that will ring alarm bells at the SNB, and the usual release of sight deposit data on Monday morning will indicate whether the Bank... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank treads water before rate hike resumption Following yesterday’s taper announcement by the Fed, and ahead of the knife-edge decision by the Bank of England later today (we forecast a 15bp rate hike), this morning’s announcement from the Norges... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
