Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Strong growth throughout, but policy to diverge Prospects appear to have improved for all of the Nordic and Swiss economies, with surveys pointing to annual GDP growth of up to 3% in Switzerland and 5% in Sweden. Inflation has been subdued on the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity surveys point to faster growth Activity surveys suggest that economic growth in the largest Nordic and Swiss economies is set to pick up. In Switzerland, the KOF Business Barometer points to annual GDP growth rising from Q4’s 0.6%... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office conversions likely to fuel rental growth in Oslo Oslo’s house price boom is likely to indirectly support the office market, by driving a level of office-to-residential conversions that will almost equal the delivery of new office space in the next... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s small rise in the Norges Bank’s preferred measure of inflation was probably just a blip. Indeed, we think that inflation will fall to about 1.0% later this year, prompting the central bank to... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will macro-prudential tools influence monetary policy? Central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have all voiced concerns about overheating in their housing markets. In Switzerland, macro-prudential policies have already served to cool house price... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMIs point to faster manufacturing growth in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. They also imply that price pressures are building in Sweden, which we think will force the Riksbank to tighten... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sharp currency depreciations in Norway and Iceland Market movements across the Nordic and Swiss economies were fairly limited in March. The main exceptions were in the currency market, with both the Norwegian krone and Icelandic króna recording sharp... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlook for monetary policy in Sweden and Norway Underlying Swedish inflation is set to pick up further and means that the Riksbank’s ultra-loose policy is no longer justified. Conversely, the outlook for Norwegian inflation calls for an interest... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Jan.) We doubt that the labour market is recovering as quickly as the decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of unemployment suggests. While things are gradually improving, wage growth looks set to... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Inflation will undershoot Norges Bank target in coming years The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for inflation. Policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose monetary policy on the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Will the Norges Bank respond to falling inflation? We think that the Norges Bank will leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting next week. While inflation has fallen much more quickly than policymakers expected, accelerating house prices are a... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s inflation data revealed that inflation is falling much more quickly than the Norges Bank expected. While activity surveys have strengthened recently, we think that inflation will continue... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Euro-zone political risk to boost Nordic & Swiss currencies This month see the first of a number of key elections in the euro-zone this year. Investors are likely to become increasingly worried about the potential for anti-euro parties to enter government and... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Finnish GDP (Q4) & National Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Activity surveys suggest that Q4’s slowdown in Finland will be short-lived. And February’s PMIs point to faster manufacturing growth in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. They also imply that price... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Big movements in Icelandic markets The Icelandic króna has appreciated significantly over the past month, as the central bank reiterated its desire to reduce its foreign exchange intervention. More generally, bond yields have fallen... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
