Europe Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle likely to be over Norges Bank is almost certain to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% next week. And we suspect that, given September’s weak inflation data, it will also soften its language about implementing one... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Nordic industrial rents to outpace euro-zone next year Industrial rental growth in the Nordics is set to slow in 2024. But a brighter macroeconomic outlook and tight vacancy will help rent growth to outperform the euro-zone. Further ahead, the current... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (September) As a result of September’s weaker-than-expected inflation data from Norway, we now think that Norges Bank’s tightening cycle is over. 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising oil prices won’t cause the ECB to hike rates The increase in oil prices over the past few months will have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation, so it won't alter the outlook for monetary policy. We still expect that the ECB will keep its... 22nd September 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank nearly done Following today’s rate hikes, the Riksbank and Norges Bank are now at, or close to, the end of their tightening cycles. Both central banks’ new projections suggest that they are more likely than not... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank & Norges Bank Policy Announcements (September 2023) Following today’s rate hikes, the Riksbank and Norges Bank are now at, or close to, the end of their tightening cycles. Both central banks’ new projections suggest that they are more likely than not... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sept. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggests the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3. We expect it to shrink further in Q4... 15th September 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank has one more hike to go We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.25%, and signal that its tightening cycle is over. It is then likely to will wait until around the... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway Consumer Prices (Aug.) Norway’s inflation rate came in broadly in line with the Norges Bank’s expectations in August, suggesting that policymakers will go ahead with their plan to raise rates from 4.0% to 4.25% next week... 11th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Only one more Norges Bank hike to come Norges Bank is very close to the end of its tightening cycle. After today’s 25bp hike, taking the deposit rate to 4%, we expect one final 25bp increase in September. We have then pencilled in a faster... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (August 2023) Norges Bank is very close to the end of its tightening cycle. After today’s 25bp hike, taking the deposit rate to 4%, we expect one final 25bp increase in September. We have then pencilled in a faster... 17th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hike and signal one more increase We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.0%, and follow that up with a final hike in September to 4.25%. 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (July) July’s decline in inflation in Norway was broadly in line with the central bank’s forecast. So Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with its planned 25bp rate hike next week. 10th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone won’t keep dodging recession There was something for both the bulls and bears in the euro-zone’s Q2 GDP data, but we fall into the latter camp. We have tweaked our GDP forecasts but still think that the economy will slip into a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Falling inflation may add further fuel to bond rally More evidence that inflation is falling back in most economies has pushed government bond yields down across developed markets (DMs) over the past couple of weeks. We think that disappointing growth... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
