Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (August 2023) Norges Bank is very close to the end of its tightening cycle. After today’s 25bp hike, taking the deposit rate to 4%, we expect one final 25bp increase in September. We have then pencilled in a faster... 17th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hike and signal one more increase We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.0%, and follow that up with a final hike in September to 4.25%. 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (July) July’s decline in inflation in Norway was broadly in line with the central bank’s forecast. So Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with its planned 25bp rate hike next week. 10th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone won’t keep dodging recession There was something for both the bulls and bears in the euro-zone’s Q2 GDP data, but we fall into the latter camp. We have tweaked our GDP forecasts but still think that the economy will slip into a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Falling inflation may add further fuel to bond rally More evidence that inflation is falling back in most economies has pushed government bond yields down across developed markets (DMs) over the past couple of weeks. We think that disappointing growth... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway Consumer Prices (June) In June, Norway’s inflation data were much stronger than expected for the second month running. While the Norges Bank has signalled a 25bp interest rate hike at its next meeting in August, June’s data... 10th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Reading the monetary tea leaves for clues on bonds A disparate range of global central banks have delivered their latest policy rate verdicts over the past 24 hours. We think there are four key points for investors to note . 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank steps up the pace, more hikes to come Today’s 50bp rate hike by the Norges Bank, taking its policy rate to 3.75%, was accompanied by new hawkish guidance and projections. As a result, we have revised up our already above-consensus... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hike and signal higher peak We think the Norges Bank will follow through on its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 3.50%, although there is an outside chance of a 50bp hike. Either way, we think it will push its... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (May) Following May’s stronger-than-expected inflation data, a rate hike by the Norges Bank later this month looks nailed on. A 25bp move still seems most likely, but the risks are skewed towards a bigger... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nordic labour markets remain tight The labour markets in Norway and Sweden remain very tight, in line with conditions in the euro-zone. This is likely to keep services inflation high over the coming months and encourage the Norges Bank... 26th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Yield surge cools As in the euro-zone, the rise in prime property yields in Scandinavia slowed sharply in Q1 after the surge in H2 2022. Along with decent gains in rents, where Oslo offices and industrial saw the... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggling, Norges Bank hiking Business surveys published this week suggest that Sweden's economy began Q2 on the back foot and is not seeing the increase in services sector activity that is taking place in the euro-zone. We still... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
