Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggling, Norges Bank hiking Business surveys published this week suggest that Sweden's economy began Q2 on the back foot and is not seeing the increase in services sector activity that is taking place in the euro-zone. We still... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More Norges Bank rate hikes to come The Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.25%, but unlike the Fed we think the tightening cycle in Norway has further to run. That said, we think that inflation will fall more quickly... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Another 25bp Norges Bank hike is on its way We expect the Norges Bank to follow through on its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 3.25%. We have pencilled in a peak of 3.5% in June but the risks are skewed towards it reaching a... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Undervalued krone likely to rebound later this year The Norwegian krone has been the worst G10 performer against the US dollar by some way in recent months. Though lower energy prices and weakening risk sentiment have likely played a role, we suspect... 21st April 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Krona versus Krone, Switzerland outperforming We expect the Norwegian krone and the Swedish Krone to appreciate against the euro this year. The krone looks significantly undervalued to us, whereas the krona is likely to benefit from the Riksbank... 21st April 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Tightening cycle not yet over The outlook for economic activity in the Nordics and Switzerland remains poor. GDP is already contracting sharply in Sweden and we think Norway and Switzerland will only narrowly avoid recessions... 14th April 2023 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Credit Suisse post mortem, Norwegian stagflation Swiss lawmakers' vote against the Credit Suisse rescue package this week does not impact the bank's takeover by UBS or the associated government guarantees. However, it has highlighted the need for... 14th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s inflation data make it all but certain that the Norges Bank will press on with its planned 25bp rate hike at the next meeting in May. 11th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Keep calm and carry on hiking The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse may tighten lending conditions slightly due to reduced competition and potentially tighter regulation. But we don’t think there will be a significant impact on... 24th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank not done yet The Norges Bank’s 25bp rate hike today was accompanied by new verbal guidance that it is likely to raise rates further in May. Together with the new, higher interest rate forecast, this supports our... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (March 2023) 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to continue tightening We don’t think the collapse of SVB, problems at Credit Suisse and volatility in markets will deter the Norges Bank from raising its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 3.0%. If anything, the risks are... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s decline in headline and core inflation takes some of the pressure off the Norges Bank and means that it is likely to hike by 25bp at the meeting in two weeks’ time. 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggling, Switzerland holding up Data released this week showed that Sweden’s economy contracted by more than previously thought in Q4, and we expect further declines to come. But Switzerland’s economy is holding up better and there... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s policy rate to rise above 3% The resilience of the economy and house prices, together with the strength of inflation, suggest that the Norges Bank will raise interest rates a bit further than we previously anticipated. We now... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q4) Norway’s mainland economy put in a much better performance in Q4 than the central bank expected and ended the year with a healthy expansion in December. Together with the continued strength in... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read