Global Markets Update Monetary policy likely to prevent weaker NOK We are now more hawkish than the consensus about the outlook for monetary policy in Norway this year. But we don’t expect the krone to keep strengthening, as we forecast that oil prices will fall. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland and Norway Policy Decisions (Mar.) Today’s decision by the Norges Bank, to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, came as no surprise, but policymakers struck a more hawkish tone than expected. While the Bank is now likely to... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Diverging policy paths lend support to the krone Price pressures generally remained subdued in Switzerland and the Nordic economics in February. Core inflation is still stubbornly low in Switzerland and while it is higher in Sweden, it has now been... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss GDP to slow, Norway bucking the Nordic trend We have cut our forecast for Swiss GDP growth this year to a below-consensus 1.0%. This leaves us broadly in line with the government’s recently-revised forecast for 2019, but we think its forecast... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to hike, but rates on hold elsewhere The Norges Bank is all but certain to increase interest rates to 1.0% at its policy meeting next week. In contrast, we expect policymakers in Switzerland and Iceland to leave rates unchanged at their... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish CPI (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in core Norwegian inflation in February makes it all but certain that the Norges Bank will increase interest rates at its policy meeting later this month. However... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Interest rates to be lower for longer The more dovish stance adopted by the ECB at its monetary policy meeting this week suggests that the upside risks to Nordic and Swiss currencies – particularly the franc – will intensify. Indeed, if... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The slight pick-up in the Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs in February provides some comfort that the recent downward pressure on their industrial sectors has not intensified. However, weakness in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mixed signs from the Swiss industrial sector The improvement in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q4 suggests that the wider economy returned to positive quarterly growth at the end of last year. Nonetheless, while the data appear... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity expected to slow The latest data paint a mixed picture of the performance of the Swiss and Nordic economies at the end of 2018, with signs of weakness in Switzerland and Sweden offset in part by robust quarterly GDP... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Implications of Riksbank’s FX and QE policies The Riksbank delivered a slightly more hawkish message than anticipated at its meeting this week, but we still think that the chance of an interest rate hike this year is falling. Meanwhile, despite... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Office sector outperforms; retail in the doldrums Occupier markets are seeing diverging fortunes, with occupier demand for office and industrial space extremely strong, but retailers battling a number of headwinds. This is likely to set the tone for... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland & Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) We think that inflation in Switzerland will fall below zero by the middle of the year, so the SNB is likely to stick to its very dovish policy stance. By contrast, we think that inflation in Norway... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to strike a dovish note next week At its meeting next week, the Riksbank is likely to deliver a dovish message, perhaps hinting that even the single rate hike that it has pencilled in for this year is now in doubt. 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q4) Norway’s economy ended 2018 on a high note, but we doubt that this will last. We suspect that lower oil prices and weaker activity elsewhere in Europe will weigh on growth, prompting the Norges Bank... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surveys point to contagion from euro-zone weakness Manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, released on Friday, dropped sharply in January, suggesting that the recent weakness in the euro-zone is spilling over to its neighbours. Next... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
