Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway bucks the dovish trend for the last time This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its key policy rate by 25bps, to 1.50%, was is in stark contrast to the rate cuts delivered by the Fed and the ECB over the past week. Nonetheless... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish, Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Aug.) The weakness of Swedish inflation in August pours even more cold water over the Riksbank’s forecasts for an interest rate hike over the next six months. We are sticking to our view that policymakers... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to (finally) turn more dovish next week While the Riksbank is likely to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% at its policy meeting on Thursday next week, we expect it to adopt a more dovish stance and to slash its forecasts for the economy... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q2) This morning’s release of Q2 GDP data from Norway confirms that the economy remains a bright spot in the Nordics. But given that oil prices are now in line with our end-year forecast of $60pb, we... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK to reach record low; DKK “trumps” central target After recently changing our Norges Bank forecast, we now expect the NOK/EUR to fall to a record-low of 10.50 by end-2019. Meanwhile, next week we expect a raft of Q2 GDP data to show that while growth... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update SEK & NOK likely to continue testing all-time lows While the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone are now near the record lows they reached against the euro in 2008-09, we think that monetary policy and rising risk aversion will push them down... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss bonds soar; Norges Bank hawkish no more Safe-haven demand has seen Swiss bond yields plumb new depths and has continued to boost the franc. We think that it is only a matter of time before the SNB cuts interest rates further into negative... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB to shift through the gears The pick-up in FX interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in recent weeks is likely to be the first step towards a rate cut. But predicting when the interventions will be dialled down and the... 15th August 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway reaches the end of its tightening cycle While this morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 1.25% was in line with expectations, the dovish shift in its tone suggests that the last bastion of... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More bad Swedish data; Norges Bank to hold rates The Norges Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged next Thursday but we expect it to leave the door open for a rate hike in September. More generally, though, the case for the Bank... 9th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (July) The fact that core inflation in Norway remained above target for the ninth month in a row in July will keep the Norges Bank in tightening mode for now. But with prices pressures set to ease, we think... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch One more hike by the Norges Bank; SNB to cut further Investors have moved in line with our previously uber-dovish forecasts for the SNB and the Riksbank in recent months. Meanwhile, although further tightening is in the pipeline in Norway, investors are... 8th August 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The sharp fall in Norway’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to signs that the economy is losing momentum and lends support to our view that the Norges Bank will hike rates by less than investors expect... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected fall in the headline Norwegian inflation rate in June is unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s hawkish bias. With core price pressures still running above target, it is set to... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The Swiss manufacturing PMI for June shows that conditions in the industrial sector have worsened going into H2, while the indicator from Sweden suggests that the economy contracted in the second... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU spat boils over; Riksbank to lower rate path The dispute between Switzerland and the EU has shifted up a gear but is unlikely to prevent the Swiss franc from rising further this year. Meanwhile, although the Riksbank looks certain to leave its... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
