Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank heading for negative territory While the 1.9% q/q plunge in mainland GDP in Norway in Q1 was slightly smaller than the record seen in 2008, it is an eye-watering decline given that the lockdown did not really begin until 12th March... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Comparatively well placed to weather the carnage Low levels of government debt mean that Switzerland and the Nordic economies are comparatively well placed to withstand the acute stresses being placed on the public finances – particularly compared... 21st April 2020 · 16 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly The gradual process of reopening begins While activity in the Swiss economy has fallen off a cliff, the stereotypical efficiency with which loans have been channelled to businesses means that the country is well placed to recover. Next week... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly The Ides of March do it again The ramp-up in containment measures in mid-March dealt a huge blow to the Norwegian economy. While restrictions will start to be lifted slowly later this month, we think that it is increasingly likely... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Scale of the economic carnage is becoming apparent The scale of the economic damage in Switzerland and the Nordics following the imposition of draconian virus-related containment measures is becoming all too apparent. Business surveys have plunged... 8th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) While core inflation in Norway remained slightly above policymakers’ target in March, the precipitous plunge in economic activity raises the chance that Norway will join the sub-zero interest rate... 8th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian unemployment explodes close to 15% While the decline in the Swedish services PMI in March seems small compared to the eye-watering declines in the euro-zone, the underlying picture is worse than it may first appear. Next week, we... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian economy being clobbered on all fronts The combination of virus-related disruption and a crunch in cash flows for energy firms means that the Norwegian economy is more exposed than most at present. And with oil prices likely to increase... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The eye-watering declines in the manufacturing PMIs for March from Switzerland and the Nordics simply confirm that economic activity has dropped off a cliff following the introduction of containment... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: COVID-19 to drive a plunge in values Given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, the hit to real estate markets is still uncertain. The drop in economic output expected in the first half of this year, along... 27th March 2020 · 19 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK carnage; Danish rate hike! The Norwegian krone has endured an extraordinary week and will be vulnerable to further falls until market sentiment improves. Nonetheless, if our forecast for oil prices to start to rise later this... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Taking stock of the policy responses so far Following the raft of policy measures by Nordic central banks this week, the focus next week will be on what the SNB has up its sleeve. We have pencilled in a cut in the policy rate, to -1.00%. Other... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Policy response to COVID-19 ramping up The policy landscape has changed dramatically over recent weeks and is shifting by the hour. Amid a raft of announcements in recent days, Denmark has grasped the nettle by closing schools and... 12th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to use its monetary space Amid a raft of rate cuts by other G10 central banks, and the recent plunge in oil prices, we have pencilled in a 50bp rate cut at the Norges Bank’s meeting next Thursday. We expect policymakers to... 11th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Policymakers edging closer to a coronavirus response It’s a very close call, but we think that the Riksbank will cut the repo rate back to -0.25% at its next scheduled rate decision on 28th April, if not before. Meanwhile, the recent rise in the Swiss... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The increases in the manufacturing PMIs in February in Switzerland and the Nordics suggest that conditions in the industrial sector were improving before the surge in coronavirus cases in Europe... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
