Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Still running ahead of the pack As elsewhere in mainland Europe, the slow vaccine rollout means that the rebound in domestic activity is unlikely to get underway in earnest until Q3. Denmark is a noteworthy exception; its... 16th April 2021 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rotation trade to resume and to drag the franc lower The partial unwinding in the reflation trade in recent weeks has stopped the decline in the Swiss franc in its tracks. Having depreciated against both the US dollar and the euro since the start of... 14th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fact that core inflation in Norway came in above target for the fifteenth month in a row in March came as no surprise. However, it underlines that the Norges Bank is in a very different place to... 9th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Manufacturing to cushion blow from rising virus cases The spaghetti-tree hoax of 1957, which centred on a Swiss family harvesting spaghetti, is widely regarded as one of the most successful April Fools’ jokes, but Swiss manufacturers are far too busy at... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark charts new course as the SNB steams ahead While lockdowns are being tightened and/or extended in much of mainland Europe, the attention in Denmark is shifting towards easing restrictions, which should allow activity there to rebound sooner... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank gearing up to hike As we expected, the Norges Bank laid the groundwork this morning for the start of a tightening cycle, later this year. But we think it will raise interest rates sooner and faster than it currently... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Preparing for lift-off The Norges Bank will probably leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday, but we expect it to adopt a much more hawkish tone than it has up to now. It might also announce a re... 11th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Feb.) Core inflation in Norway came in above target again in February, and while we expect it to fall in the coming months, home-grown price pressures should support the rate later in the year as activity... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Jan.) & Sweden Activity Ind. (Jan.) The latest tightening of virus-related restrictions in Norway will weigh on domestic activity in the near term. However, Norway remains comparatively well placed, and we expect the Norges Bank to be... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Bond market jitters; SNB cracks open the champagne We suspect that Swedish and Swiss government bond yields will come down again before long given the strong relationship with Bunds and the prospect of the ECB stepping in. However, our hawkish view... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Investor demand returning Office and industrial yields edged lower in Q4 as the recovery in Scandinavian investment took hold. However, the pandemic continued to weigh on occupiers, with retail rents declining further in most... 22nd February 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank to hike first; look out for off-colour mink We now forecast the Norges Bank to be the first advanced central bank to begin raising interest rates, in the second half of this year. This will provide a further fillip to the NOK, which we expect... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to start raising rates later this year We forecast the Norges Bank to be the first advanced central bank to begin raising interest rates, in the second half of this year. This will further bolster the krone, which we expect to be the best... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Super-sized boosts to energy inflation on the way Higher oil prices will provide a boost to energy inflation in most countries over the coming months, including in Switzerland and the Nordics. In Sweden and Norway, the energy component will be... 12th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Divisions to test compromises at the Riksbank While the Riksbank presented a united front at its meeting this week, we suspect that differences in opinion amongst Board members on how to proceed with the asset purchase programme will become more... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q4 2020) & Swiss CPI (Jan. 2021) This larger-than-expected increase in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q4 confirms that Norway is faring much better than its European peers. Activity is likely to have weakened at the start of 2021, but... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
