Capital Daily We think the outlook for bonds is brighter in India than in Brazil While we expect a renewed rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year government bonds in both India and Brazil, we project the increase in the former to be... 16th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Higher oil production to weigh on prices in 2022 Higher production from OPEC+ member states and in the Americas means that global oil production is set to rise sharply over the next eighteen months. This is the reason why we expect oil prices to... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the Norges Bank’s looming hikes into context A rate hike by the Norges Bank in September would make it the first G10 central bank to start to raise interest rates after the pandemic, by a comfortable margin. As a result, the NOK is likely to... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily DM central banks, bond yields and the US dollar We think that the various developed market (DM) central bank meetings this week will support our view that long-dated government bond yields will generally rise further in the US than elsewhere over... 14th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No inflation scare in Scandinavia or Switzerland… If there is a global inflation scare, the Scandinavians are yet to get the memo. In a week when we learnt that core inflation hit a 28-year high in the US in May, we also learnt that the core... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Two banks, heading in different directions We expect both the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold next Thursday. But while rate hikes by the SNB are many years away, a tightening cycle in Norway is edging closer... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank not marvelling at proposed Act changes While many of the changes in the new proposed Riksbank Act are benign, the Bank argues with some merit that the new legislation would make it more difficult for it to use its balance sheet during... 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1 2021) & PMIs (May) Data released this morning confirmed that the Swiss economy started 2021 on the back foot following a tightening in virus-related restrictions. However, activity will have gathered pace in Q2. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss seven-year itch; lots to ponder at the Riksbank The breakdown of the Swiss/EU Treaty talks has taken the headlines this week, but the Swiss economy appears to be galloping ahead in any case. While the belated release of Q1 GDP data next week is... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank won’t wait for the ECB The Norges Bank has a history of beginning to tighten policy earlier than the ECB and we think it will follow that pattern again this year. Meanwhile, although it’s not the most likely scenario, we... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Housing boom to test the Riksbank’s dovish resolve The Riksbank will look through the recent pick-up in consumer price inflation in Sweden, which rose above the Bank’s 2% target in April for the first time since May 2019. After all, the energy-driven... 13th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q1 2021) The weaker-than-expected 1.0% q/q decrease in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q1 confirmed that the economy slipped behind its Swedish counterpart at the start of the year, and suggests that it is now... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Apr.) Exchange rate effects pulled Norway’s core inflation rate back down to target in April, and will continue to exert downward pressure over the coming months. However, pockets of home-grown price... 10th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate lift-off edging nearer in Norway As expected, the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at a record low of zero once again this morning but remains on track to be the first advanced central bank to start to raise interest rates... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Countdown to lift-off continues The Norges Bank is set to leave rates on hold at zero next Thursday, but the countdown to lift-off is ticking and tighter macroprudential policy to counter momentum in the housing market looms. 29th April 2021 · 5 mins read
