Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway’s “climate election”; Riksbank’s QE dilemma The run-up to Norway’s parliamentary elections on Monday 13 th has been dominated by a debate over the speed at which the country should transition away from its reliance on energy. Labour’s Jonas... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell for the fifth month in a row in August, and is likely to remain steady at about half the Bank’s target rate over the next six months... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly ABBA redux; Swiss government spending splurge The news this week that ABBA are re-forming chimes with the current up-beat mood about the Swedish economy . While we doubt that the Riksbank will be in a rush to raise the repo rate, we expect it to... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Survey synchronisation; NOK resurgence The sharp fall in the forward-looking Swiss investor sentiment indicator in August mirrored the pattern seen in the German Ifo. While sentiment was bound to soften sooner or later and Switzerland has... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank in the final furlong; CHF on the up We expect the Norges Bank to deliver on its plan to start to raise interest rates, in September, which could offer some respite for the beleaguered krone. Meanwhile, data released next week are likely... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q2 & Jun. 2021) The release of Q2 GDP data from Norway this morning confirmed that the mainland economy came within a whisker of re-gaining its pre-virus level in June. Growth is set to accelerate in Q3. 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank still on track for September rate lift-off This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at a record low of zero was no surprise. Following the delay to the tightening cycle in New Zealand, the Norges Bank is back... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norges Bank treading water before taking the plunge The Norges Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold at zero next Thursday (19 th August), but it will almost certainly start to raise them, and tighten macroprudential policy further, in September. 12th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.) The small increase in headline CPI inflation in Norway, and the bigger decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure, will have no bearing on the near-term outlook for monetary policy given that... 10th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Olympic productivity gains; fading boosts to Swiss CPI Norway’s Karsten Warholm had the race of his life this week, but if only it were as easy for economic policymakers to achieve the 1-2% productivity gains that the super-springy running track in Tokyo... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly KOF coming back earth; Sweden powering ahead The latest fall in the KOF Economic Barometer suggests that the tailwinds that have driven the rebound in the Swiss industrial sector are fading. But with the hospitality sector going from strength to... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Summer Olympics not N&S’s comparative advantage Switzerland and the Nordic countries don’t tend to excel in the summer Olympics but they dominate the winter games when their comparative advantage of lots of snow and mountains becomes apparent. Next... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (May) & Sweden GDP Indicator (May) The larger-than-expected rise in mainland Norwegian GDP in May indicates that the economy is back in business following the lifting of restrictions, and it is likely to have regained its pre-virus... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weighing up the prospects for the NOK We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative... 1st July 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank confirms September rate lift-off While the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at a record low of zero once again this morning, it all but confirmed that it will raise rates in September – which would be well ahead of the RBNZ... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
