Europe Economics Update Markets' faith in Portugal seems misplaced Portugal’s clean exit from its bail-out at the weekend was soured by the news that the economy contracted in the first quarter. The GDP figures are not as worrying as they seem, but the Portuguese... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German engine can’t power euro-zone recovery While the German economy expanded by an impressive 0.8% in Q1, this failed to spur growth elsewhere in the euro-zone and the region's GDP rose by just 0.2%. Possible explanations for this are the fact... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Negative rates are no silver bullet on their own A negative interest rate on banks' excess reserves at the ECB might have some effect on banks' behaviour and at least prove that the ECB is prepared to follow its dovish words with action. But it must... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers persist The recovery in the European economy appears to have picked up a bit of speed in the early months of 2014. The euro-zone now looks set to expand by 1% or more this year, a significant improvement on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do jobs data imply for the peripheral occupier markets? Since the crisis, employment in the periphery has underperformed the euro-zone average. But recent data does at least show some positives for Portugal. And while sustained employment growth in Spain... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Portuguese GDP (Q4) The latest Portuguese GDP figures will bolster hopes that the Government can follow in Ireland’s footsteps and make a clean break from its bail-out later this year. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Does Portugal need more help? The chances of Portugal following in Ireland’s footsteps and making a “clean break” from its bailout have recently grown. Nonetheless, we think that it may still need further loans and some form of... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stars still aligned for more ECB support Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Portugal the next Ireland? Some of the conditions that preceded Ireland’s strong investment market recovery a couple of years ago are now evident in Portugal. GDP is expanding at a decent rate, while the deficit reduction... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers cast shadow over recovery The European economy looks set for another year of weak growth in 2014, with the euro-zone likely to do little more than stagnate. Against that background, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The pitfalls in the euro-zone’s road to recovery Although our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in 2014 of 0.5% is now only a little more downbeat than the consensus estimate, there remain plenty of risks that could yet derail the region's recovery... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A second bail-out still looms for Portugal Portugal is unlikely to follow in Ireland’s footsteps and achieve a “clean exit” from its existing rescue package. We think that the most likely scenario is that Portugal seeks a second full-blown... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Signs of growth convergence provide little comfort Q3's meagre rise in euro-zone GDP clearly was disappointing, but there were some signs that growth within the region is converging. The slowdown was largely down to weaker growth in Germany and France... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Portugal's commercial property market is still a risky bet There have been encouraging signs lately that international institutional investors might be returning to the Portuguese commercial property market. This would be consistent with the improvement in... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects improve, but crisis unresolved The European economy has shown further signs of recovery, with the euro-zone finally emerging from recession in the second quarter and other parts of the continent also faring better. But growth in... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal to remain under pressure Given the progress that the Portuguese Government has made towards cutting its borrowing, the Troika is likely to grant it at least part of its next bail-out tranche after negotiations this week. But... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
