Europe Economics Update Are Portugal’s fiscal problems over? Last week’s decision by DBRS to maintain its investment grade credit rating for Portugal has brought short-term relief. But with the economic recovery likely to slow this year and the public finances... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese yields to rise further on threat of QE exclusion The latest rise in Portuguese bond yields reflects fears that its debt will soon be classified as junk by all four major ratings agencies, leading the country to be excluded from the ECB’s asset... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Recent volatility in Portuguese bond yields a worrying sign for property Given the historic correlation between property yields in Lisbon and Portuguese government bond yields, the recent spike in bond yields seems worrying. Although a correction in property yields does... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese Government struggling to resist austerity The European Commission made only minor concessions to the Portuguese Government over its 2016 Budget and the pace of fiscal consolidation will still be faster this year than last. This suggests that... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Is property in Lisbon overvalued? Lisbon has been highlighted as one of Europe’s top cities for investment prospects this year. Yet property yields are already at record lows. And as Portugal’s weak economic fundamentals limit the... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fall of Portuguese Government shows austerity is failing Today’s vote of no confidence in the Portuguese Government seems set to usher in a renewed push against austerity and a further rise in bond yields. The one hope is that mounting public resistance to... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s austerity backlash seems set to continue Political wrangling in Portugal since its election has again highlighted the difficulty of imposing endless austerity on a weak economy. The fragile new Government will struggle to meet the European... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election result doesn’t alter Portugal’s challenging outlook While the re-election of Portugal’s centre-right coalition appeared to be an endorsement of the austerity stance it has taken, its failure to secure a parliamentary majority means that it may struggle... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s next Government will have its work cut out This weekend’s general election in Portugal looks set to be a close contest with a minority government currently appearing the most likely outcome. But whichever party ends up on top, it faces an... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Portuguese election concerns unlikely to dampen retail prospects Political factors pose less risk to the economic outlook in Portugal than in Spain. Nevertheless, the underlying economic outlook for Portugal is weaker, which will weigh on occupier demand in Lisbon... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s fiscal consolidation hampered by low inflation Inflation dynamics continue to hamper Portugal’s attempts to deal with its huge debt problems. The country may need to implement more fiscal austerity as it struggles to pay down its debt. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Export success masks Portugal’s external weakness Portugal’s exports have been amongst the euro-zone’s fastest growing over the last few years. But the country’s external position remains very fragile, leaving it vulnerable to renewed market... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy’s recovery: lessons from Iberia Spain’s and Portugal’s recoveries offer some hope for Italy, the periphery’s laggard. But Italy’s exports are still too uncompetitive and its firms too unprofitable to mimic the export and investment... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further yield hardening means peripheral markets will be vulnerable Greece’s future in the euro-zone is still far from secure, and upcoming general elections in Portugal, Spain and Ireland could lead to significant political changes. Nevertheless, given that property... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the euro-zone’s next weakest link? Although the ECB’s OMT programme may allow Portugal to weather a Grexit, the country still faces serious challenges that might jeopardise the country’s long-term position within the currency union. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery prospects clouded by Greece Recent indicators have brought signs of a renewed recovery in the euro-zone economy, reflecting the beneficial effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate. But the picture... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
