Europe Economics Update Portugal out of the EDP, but not out of the woods Portugal is on the brink of exiting the “corrective arm” of the EU’s Excessive Deficit Procedure, but it is a long way from escaping strict EU oversight of its budget. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prime Lisbon office rents set for a new upward phase With Portugal’s economy starting to recovery, we expect prime Lisbon office rents to begin a sustained shift higher, supported by rising occupier demand and a limited development pipeline. 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the banks help or hinder Portugal’s recovery? There are some positive signs for Portugal’s banks, suggesting that they have become less of a risk to the public finances. But a meaningful recovery in lending over the next few years seems unlikely... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are things finally looking up for Portugal? Portugal’s anti-austerity Government has continued to implement economic reforms and cut its budget deficit, which reduces the risk of sanctions from the EU. But major challenges still lie ahead. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which countries are most exposed to US protectionism? Germany, Belgium and particularly Ireland are the euro-zone members most exposed to US protectionism, while Portugal and the other peripheral euro-zone economies are the least exposed. 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone back in the spotlight in 2017 The European economies have continued to fare relatively well, with euro-zone growth in particular supported by a weaker currency and low inflation. However, a temporary surge in inflation this year... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese bond yields to climb further as ECB nears limits Portuguese government bonds rallied last week, but we doubt that this will continue. Sooner or later, we think that concerns about the sovereign credit rating and falling ECB asset purchases will push... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) November’s data brought further signs of public finances improving in the euro-zone’s periphery. But the Greek bail-out deal is at risk of collapse, and the Italian banking sector remains in a parlous... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) In October, signs of fiscal slippage eased somewhat in the euro zone’s periphery. But the Greek bailout deal remains at risk of collapse and the growing likelihood of a bail-out for Italian banks... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how big are Portugal’s fiscal problems? After narrowly avoiding EU fines for its excessive fiscal deficit, the Portuguese Government has a lot of work to do to get its finances in order. But strong political resistance to austerity and... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail rental growth in Lisbon down but not out Prime retail rents in Lisbon have risen by more than one-third in the last six years, supported by policy reform, a rise in tourist numbers and an economic recovery. But, with slower economic growth... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal be excluded from the ECB’s QE programme? The sharp rise in Portugal’s bond yields last week reflected justified concerns about the government’s credit rating. While the Government intends to stick to the EU’s fiscal rules, slow economic... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should investors be concerned about Lisbon property? With Lisbon office and retail valuations looking increasingly stretched, and periodic spikes in Portuguese government bond yields, the risks to property market pricing appear to be on the rise. 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the EC become more lenient on fiscal policy? On the face of it, last week’s decisions by the European Commission to allow Italy greater flexibility in its budget, and not to fine Spain and Portugal for their large deficits, suggest that it has... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
