Europe Economics Update Will Ireland and Portugal roll over their debt too? The Irish and Portuguese public finances are not in as precarious a position as those of Greece, but we think that there is a strong chance that both economies will eventually have to follow in Greece... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Portugal push away debt restructuring fears? Portugal’s bail-out has finally been given the green light. While a cash crisis has been avoided, there are reasons to think that Portugal may struggle to push away fears that it will eventually need... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the Portuguese bail-out work? It is not surprising that the positive market reaction to the initial details of Portugal’s package last week was short-lived. On the face of it, the bail-out may turn out to be more successful than... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal succumbs. Now what? Now that Portugal has succumbed to the inevitable, the key question is whether the latest euro-zone bail-out finally draws a line under the peripheral economies’ problems or marks the start of a new... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Portugal yet escape a bail-out? Despite the surge in Portuguese government bond yields, politicians continue to insist that they will not require a bail-out. But these words can quickly be taken over by events. A quick look at... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese bail-out now even more likely The fall of Portugal’s Government makes it even more likely that the country will follow Greece and Ireland in accepting a bail-out. But it may also add to the growing concerns over the prospect of... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Portugal avoid another lost decade? Portugal seems very likely to become the third peripheral euro-zone country to need a bail-out. But it also faces much greater challenges if it is to overcome the deep-seated structural problems which... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the "Euro Pact" mean for Portugal? Contrary to prior expectations, Portugal was not pushed into accepting a bail-out at this weekend’s euro-zone summit. Instead, the “Euro Pact” and Portugal’s announcement of new fiscal measures eased... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian & Portuguese GDP (Breakdown, Q4) The Italian and Portuguese Q4 GDP expenditure breakdowns add to evidence that the divergence in economic growth between the northern and southern euro-zone economies is unlikely to narrow... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a Portuguese bail-out just around the corner? The recent increase in Portuguese bond yields will increase the pressure on the Government to accept a bail-out. Nonetheless, the Government may resist requesting outside support for a little while... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese economy stumbles as political tensions resurge The renewed contraction in Portuguese GDP in Q4 last year underlines the fragility of the outlook for the economy. With political tensions rising and government bond yields uncomfortably high... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal remains on the frontline After a month of respite, the surge in Portuguese ten year government bond yields to new euro-era highs has reignited fears that Portugal may still need outside support. Even if Portugal isn’t forced... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal's presidential election add fuel to the fire? Portugal has survived its first market tests of 2011 and resisted pressure to accept outside support. But with government bond yields still at very high levels, the Government’s struggle to go without... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal - the end of Act 1? It now seems a matter of when, rather than if, Portugal will follow Greece and Ireland in accepting some form of European/IMF bail-out. But will this signal the beginning of the end of the euro-zone... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal's toughest tests still lie ahead The ECB’s announcement that it would step up its bond purchase programme and extend liquidity provision to the banking sector has eased immediate pressure on Portugal. But the initial positive market... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal inevitably follow Ireland? With Ireland on the brink of accepting some kind of bail-out, fears of contagion have intensified. While Portugal is clearly the next in line, it is in a better position than Ireland, which means that... 19th November 2010 · 1 min read
